股指：申万期货品种策略日报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - In the context of China's mild economic recovery and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A-share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross-year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to remain volatile, with funds favoring defensive allocations. Once the meeting contents are clear and the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's interest rate cuts, market risk appetite is expected to rise again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts decreased compared to the day before, with declines ranging from -0.25% to -0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - IH Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also decreased, with declines ranging from -0.35% to -0.41%. The trading volume and open interest showed different trends, and the open interest of most contracts increased [1] - IC Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts dropped, with declines from -0.35% to -0.42%. The trading volume and open interest changed, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - IM Contracts: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with declines ranging from -0.53% to -0.58%. The trading volume and open interest varied, and the open interest of all contracts increased [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts had different values compared to the previous values, with some spreads widening and some remaining the same [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Stock Indexes: The previous day's values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes decreased compared to the day before, with declines of -0.51%, -0.52%, -0.62%, and -0.89% respectively. The trading volume and total trading amount also changed [1] - Industry Indexes: Different industries in the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 industry index showed different trends, with the raw materials industry rising by 0.85% and other industries such as energy, industry, and optional consumption showing declines [1] 3. Basis between Futures and Spot - The basis between futures and spot of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased compared to the day before, indicating changes in the relationship between futures and spot prices [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from -0.51% to -1.12% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The Hang Seng Index decreased by -1.28%, the DAX Index decreased by -0.07%, the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.30%, and the Nikkei 225 Index remained unchanged [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The US ADP employment data in November showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023, far below market expectations. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is close to 90% [2] - Chinese Premier Li Qiang pointed out that new - type urbanization is an important carrier for expanding domestic demand, promoting industrial upgrading, and strengthening the domestic economic cycle. Relevant measures should be taken in urbanization planning, population citizenization, urban renewal, and breaking the urban - rural dual structure [2] - The US President signed a law regarding US - Taiwan relations, and China urged the US to stop official exchanges with Taiwan and not send wrong signals to "Taiwan independence" forces [2] - The State Council approved the "Yangtze River Delta Territorial Space Planning (2023 - 2035)", which aims to support Shanghai in playing a leading role and promote the construction of a world - class city cluster [2] - From January to November this year, consumer goods trade - in drove related commodity sales of over 2.5 trillion yuan, benefiting over 360 million people. From January to October, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 6.58443 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%, and the service trade deficit decreased by 269.39 billion yuan year - on - year [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Civil Aviation Administration issued an action plan for the integrated development of culture, tourism, and civil aviation, including 15 specific measures [2] - As the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan of national subsidy funds is further consumed, more than 20 cities across the country have suspended or adjusted automobile trade - in subsidy activities [2] - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.263 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the retail sales of the new - energy vehicle market were 1.354 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the penetration rate of the new - energy vehicle market was 59.8% [2] - In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Energy logistics demand slowed down, while logistics demand in the industrial manufacturing and consumer sectors showed positive and stable trends respectively [2]