Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading; glass is advised to be observed without chasing high prices [1][5][7]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper, tin, and gold are for range trading; aluminum suggests reducing long positions when rebounding to high levels; nickel advises waiting and watching or shorting on rallies; silver recommends holding long positions and being cautious about new positions; lithium carbonate is expected to be strongly volatile [1][10][13][15]. - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary waiting and watching; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][17][19][23]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strongly volatile; PTA is expected to rise in a volatile manner; apples are expected to be strongly volatile; jujubes are expected to be weakly volatile [1][25][26][27]. - Agricultural and Livestock: For live pigs, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended for near - term contracts, and cautious optimism for far - term contracts; eggs' price increase is limited; corn suggests selling on rallies for hedging in the short term and expecting support in the long term; soybean meal is for range trading; for oils and fats, it is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [1][28][30][32][34][35]. Core Views - The global economic situation shows some resilience, but there are still uncertainties such as the impact of US tariffs and the monetary policies of major central banks. Different sectors in the futures market are affected by various factors including supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations, leading to different investment suggestions for each product [5][10][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: The external environment has improved, but the market's main themes rotate quickly. Index futures are expected to trade sideways in the short term and are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - Treasury Bonds: In December, institutional behavior may be the core variable affecting the bond market. If the market has a conservative expectation for the bond market next year, the intensity of the rally driven by the "front - running" of allocation funds may be weaker than in previous years. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market is in a downward trend with weak demand. Market participants are generally waiting and watching. Mainstream coal mines continue to cut prices for promotion, and the overall market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended for range trading [7]. - Rebar: The rebar futures price fluctuates narrowly. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the price drivers for both rise and fall are weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and short - term trading is recommended [7]. - Glass: The glass futures rebounded last week due to rumors of production line shutdowns and increased purchases by futures - spot traders. However, the social inventory pressure is huge, and the demand is weak at the end of the year. It is advised to observe without chasing high prices [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The safety situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is complex, and the market is focusing on the long - term contract negotiations of copper mines. The long - term demand for copper is optimistic, but the short - term high price may suppress consumption. It is expected to trade at a high level, and range trading is recommended [10]. - Aluminum: The price of bauxite is stable, and the supply of imported ore is expected to increase in December, which may put pressure on the ore price. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. The demand is gradually entering the off - season, but the macro sentiment has improved. It is recommended to reduce long positions when the price rebounds to a high level [11]. - Nickel: The new RKAB policy in Indonesia may bring some uncertainty to the nickel ore market supply. In the medium to long term, the nickel supply is in an oversupply state. It is recommended to wait and watch or short on rallies [12][13]. - Tin: The domestic refined tin production increased in October. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream consumption is weak. It is expected that the tin price will be supported, and range trading is recommended [13]. - Silver: Fed officials' dovish statements have increased the market's expectation of a rate cut in December. Silver prices are expected to be supported. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [14][15]. - Gold: Similar to silver, gold prices are expected to be supported by the expectation of a rate cut and safe - haven demand. Range trading is recommended [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of mine permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jiaxiawo lithium mine [16][17]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export growth rate is questionable, and the overall supply - demand is weak. It is expected to trade at a low level, and range trading is recommended [17]. - Caustic Soda: The inventory is high, and the profit of the alumina industry is compressed. The production and reduction of capacity have offsetting effects on caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and watch [19]. - Styrene: The rebound of the benzene series is mainly due to the "blending for oil" narrative. The overseas "blending for oil" logic cannot change the weak fundamentals in the short term. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [19]. - Rubber: The price of overseas raw materials has continued to fall, and the supply - side support has weakened. The inventory has been accumulating, and the demand is limited. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner, and range trading is recommended [20]. - Urea: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the industrial demand is strengthening. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [21][22]. - Methanol: The supply has recovered, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased slightly, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to trade in a volatile manner [23]. - Polyolefins: The inventory has continued to decline, mainly due to downstream replenishment at low prices. The demand is weakening after the peak season. PE is expected to trade in a range, and PP is expected to be weakly volatile [23][24]. - Soda Ash: The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong after the supply contraction. It is recommended to wait and watch [24]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply - demand data is relatively loose, but the domestic cotton sales are fast recently, and the yarn price is firm, driving the cotton price to rebound. It is expected to be strongly volatile [25][26]. - PTA: Geopolitical factors have led to an increase in crude oil prices, and the PTA supply - demand is in a state of inventory reduction. It is expected to rise in a volatile manner, and the range of 4600 - 4900 should be focused on [26]. - Apples: The inventory of late - Fuji apples is mainly shipped on demand, and the trading atmosphere in the warehouse is average. It is expected to be strongly volatile [27]. - Jujubes: The acquisition progress of gray jujubes in Xinjiang is about 80%. The acquisition enthusiasm of enterprises is average. It is expected to be weakly volatile [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: In the short term, the supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is not obvious. In the long term, the production capacity reduction has accelerated but is still above the normal level. It is recommended to short on rallies for near - term contracts and be cautiously optimistic about far - term contracts [29][30]. - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand is marginally improved, but the long - term production capacity reduction still takes time. The price increase is limited [30][31]. - Corn: In the short term, there is still selling pressure to be digested, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the cost support is strong, but the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose, limiting the upward space [32][33]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic and foreign soybean markets have different situations. The supply in the short term is relatively abundant, and range trading is recommended [34][35]. - Oils and Fats: The short - term upward momentum of domestic oils and fats is insufficient, and they are expected to trade at a high level. It is advised to take profits on previous long positions of soybean and palm oil and beware of callback risks [35][39].
2025年12月04日：期货市场交易指引-20251204
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-12-04 02:15