国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded [2][4]. - Silver: It is accelerating its upward movement and reaching new highs [2][4]. - Copper: Driven by multiple factors, the price is strengthening [2][8]. - Zinc: It is oscillating with a slight upward trend [2][11]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits price corrections [2][14]. - Tin: There are new disruptions in supply [2][17]. - Aluminum: It is operating strongly [2][21]. - Alumina: It continues to face downward pressure [2][21]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: It is fluctuating within a narrow range [2][24]. - Palladium: It is consolidating horizontally [2][24]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit its upward potential, and it is oscillating at a low level [2][29]. - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand conditions exist, and cost limits the downside potential [2][29]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Gold T + D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively during the day, and 0.66% and 0.19% respectively at night. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2512 and Silver T + D increased by 4.46% and 4.72% respectively during the day, and 5.08% and 3.27% respectively at night. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed [4]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged, while the inventory of Shanghai Silver increased by 14,820 kilograms [4]. - Macro - news: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 people, the largest drop since March 2023 [4]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract increased by 0.33% during the day and 1.74% at night, and the LME copper 3M electronic disk increased by 2.72%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [8]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of Shanghai copper decreased by 1,599 tons, and the LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons. The premium of some copper products also changed [8]. - Macro - and Industry News: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and the global copper market is expected to have a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. Chilean copper companies have adjusted their prices and premiums [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 2 [10]. 3.3 Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract increased by 0.04%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by 1.15%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [11]. - Premium and Inventory: The premiums of Shanghai 0 zinc and LME CASH - 3M changed, and the inventory of Shanghai zinc decreased by 207 tons, while the LME zinc inventory increased by 75 tons [11]. - News: The US Treasury Secretary made remarks on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and tariffs [11]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 1 [11]. 3.4 Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract remained unchanged, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.30%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [14]. - Premium and Inventory: The premiums of Shanghai 1 lead and LME CASH - 3M changed, and the inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 1,502 tons, and the LME lead inventory decreased by 3,800 tons [14]. - News: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15]. 3.5 Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract increased by 0.50% during the day and decreased by 0.27% at night, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.15%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed [17]. - Inventory and Price: The inventory of Shanghai tin increased by 27 tons, and the price of some tin products changed [17]. - Macro - and Industry News: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and other macro - and industry news [18]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [20]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices and trading volumes of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy main contracts changed to varying degrees [21]. - Inventory and Premium: The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots remained unchanged, and the premiums of some products changed [21]. - News: The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, and the US ISM service industry index expanded at the fastest pace in nine months [23]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [23]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The prices and trading volumes of platinum and palladium contracts changed, and the ETF holdings also changed [25]. - Macro - and Industry News: The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people [28]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is 0, and palladium trend intensity is 0 [27]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices and trading volumes of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel main contracts changed [29]. - Industry Chain Data: The prices and spreads of products in the nickel and stainless steel industrial chains changed [29]. - Macro - and Industry News: There were issues such as the takeover of a nickel mine in Indonesia, the suspension of non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and the suspension of new smelting licenses in Indonesia [29][32]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [33].