合成橡胶震荡筑底
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-12-04 02:34

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The synthetic rubber futures market currently shows a pattern of loose supply and demand. The price of butadiene at the cost - end is weakly oscillating. The supply - side capacity utilization rate has increased, while the demand - side is weak. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures will maintain an oscillating bottom - building trend in the future, and the rubber price in December lacks the impetus for continuous rise [2][5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Supply - side Situation - In the butadiene market, due to the normal operation of some domestic petrochemical plants and new device production, as well as the expected high import volume, the supply is in a continuous loose pattern. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's butadiene rubber was 68.13%, down 3.27 percentage points from the previous month but up 0.53 percentage points year - on - year. The output was 13.01 tons, down 0.75 tons month - on - month with a decline of 5.44% but up 8.43% year - on - year. The inventory continued to grow. By the end of November, the inventory of sample enterprises reached 3.24 tons, up 5.05% from the end of October, and the warehouse receipts of synthetic rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 1.54 tons, up 79.25% from the end of October [3]. Demand - side Situation - The tire industry, the largest consumer area of synthetic rubber, performed below expectations in November. Affected by seasonal demand decline and trade barriers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises decreased. As of the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points week - on - week and 13.64 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, up 0.71 percentage points week - on - week and 2.68 percentage points year - on - year. Since semi - steel tires use more synthetic rubber, the significant decline in their capacity utilization rate highlights the slowdown in synthetic rubber demand [4]. Inventory and Future Outlook - With the weakening of tire enterprises' material demand, the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is further highlighted. The average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire enterprises increased to 45.86 days, and that of all - steel tires was 40.24 days. High inventory led to low procurement willingness of tire factories. It is expected that this situation will continue in December, dragging down the overall output. Other downstream industries have no growth highlights. In general, the supply of synthetic rubber futures will remain abundant in the future, and the demand is not optimistic. The rubber price in December is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [5].