铅：库存减少，限制价格回调

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The reduction in lead inventory restricts price corrections [1] - The unexpected decline in the US ADP employment in November has made investors almost completely convinced that the Fed will cut interest rates next week [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,210 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change from the previous day; the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,993.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.30% [1] - Volume: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 27,017 lots, a decrease of 25,060 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,243 lots, a decrease of 5,336 lots [1] - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 46,627 lots, a decrease of 974 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 171,881 lots, an increase of 574 lots [1] - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.45 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.45 US dollars/ton [1] - Import and Export Profits and Losses: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was 85.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.93 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was -109.18 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49.6 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: Shanghai lead futures inventory was 16,629 tons, a decrease of 1,502 tons; LME lead inventory was 253,150 tons, a decrease of 3,800 tons [1] - Recycled Lead: The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 17,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 306 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly decreased by 32,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023, with a sharp increase in the number of unemployed in small businesses, leading investors to almost fully believe that the Fed will cut interest rates next week [2] 3.3 Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]