现货贴水扩大难以阻碍铝价上涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Spot discount expansion is difficult to hinder the rise of aluminum prices. Although the spot market seems weak and the absolute price rise leads to the continuous expansion of the spot discount, which may affect inventory performance and limit the upward elasticity of aluminum prices, the macro - environment is favorable, and aluminum prices rise synchronously with copper prices. Low inventory and potential reduction during the traditional off - season are positive factors. The market is optimistic about future consumption, and the expectation of inventory reduction before the Spring Festival needs attention [6]. - For alumina, the decline in the futures price and the large discount of near - month contracts are conducive to warehouse receipt transactions and relieving warehouse receipt pressure, but there are few positive factors in the fundamentals, and social inventory pressure remains. The reduction in production in the north due to environmental protection has limited impact on the current oversupply situation. The cost support of bauxite is being tested, and the uncertainty risk of Guinea bauxite needs to be guarded against [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 21,800 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminum price is 21,680 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 170 yuan/ton. Foshan A00 aluminum price is 21,690 yuan/ton, with a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changes by - 15 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,940 yuan/ton, closed at 21,940 yuan/ton, with a change of 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 21,970 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 161,612 lots, and the position was 249,248 lots [2]. Inventory - As of December 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 596,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 66,833 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 533,400 tons, with a change of - 2,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On December 3, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,825 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,760 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,850 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,885 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,900 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 314 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On December 3, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,671 yuan/ton, closed at 2,636 yuan/ton, with a change of - 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of - 1.53%. The highest price reached 2,675 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,626 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 204,508 lots, and the position was 344,387 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On December 3, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,200 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, with no change compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 74,600 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 59,200 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,069 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 269 yuan/ton [5].