格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea production decline, the agricultural demand is in the off - season, while the industrial demand is gradually increasing. The latest India tender price meets market expectations, and the short - term urea price will be oscillating bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on going long on the far - month contracts [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 rose 10 yuan to 1692 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area rose to 1690 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 3452 lots to 211,900 lots, and the short - position decreased by 3346 lots to 234,500 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 0.44 compared to the previous working day and an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 82.28%, a 0.67% increase compared to 81.6% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons, a 5.38% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of urea port samples is 100,000 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 37.1%, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 57.4%, a 4.2% month - on - month increase [1] - India Tender: On November 20th, India's IPL held a urea import tender. The lowest CFR prices were 418.40 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 419.50 US dollars/ton on the west coast, both from AGRIFIELD, with a total of 24 suppliers [1] - Economic Data: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%. The overall economic climate was stable [1] Market Logic - With the decline in domestic urea production, the off - season in agriculture, and the increasing industrial demand, combined with the in - line - with - expectation India tender price, the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1740 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Focus on going long on the far - month contracts [1]