中辉能化观点-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, ethylene glycol [2][4][7][8] - Bearish Continuation: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [2][8] - Cautiously Bullish: PX/PTA, methanol, urea, natural gas [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude Oil: OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and the supply glut in the off - season dominates the market. Geopolitical factors from Russia - Ukraine and South America affect prices. Short - term support exists, but long - term downward pressure is large [2][11]. - LPG: Cost support declines, and demand weakens, causing the price to fall. Although downstream chemical demand has some resilience, the overall trend is downward [2]. - L: Cost support weakens, supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. The market sentiment for short - selling continues [2]. - PP: Cost support weakens, supply pressure eases slightly, but demand is weak. The market remains bearish in the medium - to - long term [2]. - PVC: Although there is low - valuation support, the social inventory is high, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term trading depends on funds, and long - term long - positions await inventory reduction [2]. - PX/PTA: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, and downstream demand is good. Short - term supply - demand is tight, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [4][31]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. - Methanol: The port inventory is decreasing, demand is improving, and the cost has some support. Although the supply pressure still exists, there are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [4]. - Urea: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. There are opportunities to go long on dips [4]. - Natural Gas: Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and the price is expected to be strong [8]. - Asphalt: Cost is mainly affected by oil prices, and demand enters the off - season. The price still has room to decline [8]. - Glass: The daily melting volume is decreasing, and demand is weak. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - Soda Ash: Warehouse receipts are increasing, supply is loose, and demand is declining. Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.53%, Brent up 0.35%, and SC down 0.88% [10]. - Fundamentals: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply is in surplus in the off - season, and global and US inventories are increasing. Russian exports are expected to increase, and Indian imports from Russia may decrease [11][12]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [445 - 455] [13]. LPG - Market Performance: On December 3, the PG main contract closed at 4292 yuan/ton, down 0.81%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [15]. - Fundamentals: Cost is linked to oil prices and trends downward. Supply increases, and demand from downstream chemicals has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand declines. Inventories in refineries and ports decrease [16]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4250 - 4350] [17]. L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [20]. - Fundamentals: Cost support strengthens temporarily, but supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21]. - Strategy: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators changed slightly [24]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure eases slightly due to increased shutdowns, but demand is weak. Propylene warehouse receipts may affect the market [25]. - Strategy: Short - term is relatively strong, but wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Consider going long on PP processing fees 01. Pay attention to the ranges of PP at [6350 - 6500] and propylene at [5850 - 6000] [25]. PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [28]. - Fundamentals: Warehouse receipts decline from a high level, calcium carbide prices rise. Social inventory is high, but low - valuation support exists [29]. - Strategy: Try to go long on pull - backs according to fund dynamics in the short - term. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of V at [4500 - 4700] [29]. PTA - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and processing fees decreased [30]. - Fundamentals: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, downstream demand is good, and the cost of PX is supportive. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [31]. - Strategy: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4690 - 4750] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The overall market shows a downward trend, and the price fluctuates with cost [34]. - Fundamentals: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December, and downstream demand is good but orders are weakening [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3791 - 3841] [35]. Methanol - Market Performance: The main contract's position decreases, and the price fluctuates [38]. - Fundamentals: Port inventory decreases, domestic production load increases, overseas production decreases, and demand improves. The cost has some support [38]. - Strategy: The rebound height of the 01 contract may be limited. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA at [2105 - 2145] [41]. Urea - Market Performance: Futures and spot prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [42]. - Fundamentals: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. Inventory decreases slightly but remains high [43]. - Strategy: Lightly go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1665 - 1700] [44]. Natural Gas - Market Performance: On December 2, the NG main contract closed at 4.840 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.65% [47]. - Fundamentals: The EU plans to ban Russian gas imports, increasing demand for US LNG. Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and inventory in the US decreases [48]. - Strategy: The price is likely to rise due to increased demand in the peak season. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.870 - 5.000] [49]. Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 3, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [52]. - Fundamentals: Cost is affected by oil prices, supply decreases slightly, demand increases slightly in the short - term, and inventory decreases [53]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [54]. Glass - Market Performance: Futures prices decline, and spot prices in different regions change slightly [56]. - Fundamentals: The daily melting volume decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate market. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation [58]. - Strategy: Short - term may be relatively strong depending on cold - repair implementation, and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG at [1020 - 1070] [58]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: Futures prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [60]. - Fundamentals: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is loose, and demand from the glass industry decreases [62]. - Strategy: Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SA at [1150 - 1200] [62].