申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Night - session copper prices closed higher, hitting a record high. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point, and smelting output, while declining month - on - month, continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high, infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 89,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 90 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,449 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 161,800 tons, and the daily change was 2,375 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,897 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 535,900 tons, and the daily change was - 2,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,062 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,375 tons, and the daily change was 350 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,600 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,875 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,074 tons, and the daily change was - 1,290 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,195 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 256,950 tons, and the daily change was - 3,925 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 311,370 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,390 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 40,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,145 tons, and the daily change was - 15 tons [2].