中辉农产品观点-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish Dominance: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton [1] - Bearish Dominance: Red dates, live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term bullish oscillation. Although recent inventory has increased, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture's December report and monitor South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term bullish oscillation. Due to the influence of weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low import expectations, the far - month contract is expected to maintain a bullish oscillation. Pay attention to the US Department of Agriculture's December report and China - Canada trade developments [1][6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November, there are positive factors such as delayed implementation of EU regulations and floods in Southeast Asia. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long after adjustments [1][8]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term bullish oscillation. Domestic inventory is slightly lower than before but still higher than the five - year average. Follow the trend of palm oil and pay attention to South American soybean weather [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Short - term bullish. With coastal oil mills shut down, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero imports in November, the fundamentals are strong, so a bullish approach is recommended [1]. - Cotton: Cautiously bullish. ICE market is expected to oscillate. In the domestic market, low - basis resources are decreasing, and cost support is strengthening. However, there are still constraints such as high inventory and hedging pressure. Consider buying on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][13]. - Red Dates: Oscillating weakly. As new products are launched and the consumption season arrives, the market will transition to a situation of both supply and demand increasing. It is recommended to maintain a bearish attitude, but do not chase short positions excessively [1][15]. - Live Pigs: Oscillating weakly. In December, sample enterprises have a high enthusiasm for slaughter. With limited demand growth, it is difficult to support prices. Focus on short - selling opportunities for the near - month 01 contract, and the 03 contract is also bearish. Look for short - term long - buying opportunities for the 09 and 11 contracts after the selling pressure is released [1][18]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957600 tons, up 15100 tons week - on - week; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733960 tons, up 18970 tons week - on - week; and soybean meal inventory was 120320 tons, up 5170 tons week - on - week [3]. - Price: The main contract's closing price was 3046 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3114.86 yuan/ton, down 1.71 yuan or 0.05% [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Price: The main contract's closing price was 2408 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.62% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2497.89 yuan/ton, down 9.48 yuan or 0.38% [4]. Palm Oil - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the national key areas' commercial inventory was 653500 tons, down 13600 tons or 2.04% week - on - week [8]. - Price: The main contract's closing price was 8730 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% from the previous day. The national average price was 8818 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan or 0.86% [7]. Cotton - International Situation: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, and rainfall in late November was unfavorable for harvesting; in India, new cotton is being listed, and rainfall in late November affected MSP procurement; in Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new cotton [11]. - Domestic Situation: New cotton picking is almost finished, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased, and downstream demand has shown some resilience [12]. Red Dates - Supply: New dates are being harvested, and the expected new - season output is 500000 - 600000 tons. The purchase price has remained stable recently [15]. - Price: The main contract's closing price was 9055 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.60% from the previous day. The spot price in some areas has remained unchanged [14]. Live Pigs - Supply: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure may still be large, but the long - term supply may gradually decrease as the number of fertile sows decreases [17]. - Price: The main contract's closing price was 11490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 11430 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan or 1.64% [16].