美国“小非农”超预期降温，拖累美元走低

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is overall neutral [2] Core Viewpoints - The unexpected cooling of the US "small non - farm" data has dragged down the US dollar. Domestic policy expectations are rising, while the domestic economic foundation needs to be consolidated. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has increased. In the commodity market, during the current inflation expectation game stage, focus on commodities with high certainty such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Domestic Situation: On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting studied in - depth implementation of "two - major" construction work and deployed measures to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption. On November 24, the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition. On November 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the governance of irrational competition in the power and energy storage battery industries. China's exports in October (in US dollars) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry in October slowed down. China's official manufacturing PMI in November rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI has been above the critical point of 50 for 10 consecutive months. The non - manufacturing PMI declined slightly due to the high - base effect. China's RatingDog service PMI in November slightly decreased to 52.1, with a significant improvement in new export orders. On December 3, French President Macron arrived in Beijing for his fourth state visit to China. The A - share market fluctuated and adjusted throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1% [1] - US Situation: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December has jumped from less than 30% on November 20 to over 70%. Many Fed officials have sent dovish signals, and some key figures support a December rate cut. In November, the US ADP employment decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023, and small - business unemployment soared. The US S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value in November was 54.8, the highest in four months, with the service PMI growing faster and the manufacturing PMI growing slower. The US ISM manufacturing index dropped from 48.7 to 48.2, the largest decline in four months and below the boom - bust line of 50 for nine consecutive months. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics adjusted data release arrangements. Trump hinted that economic advisor Hassett might succeed as Fed chairman, strengthening the market's expectation of faster - than - expected rate cuts. On December 1, the US Trade Representative's Office announced a principled agreement on drug pricing between the US and the UK [1] - European and Asian Situations: The European Central Bank warned that high valuations exacerbate financial stability risks. In Japan, the 5 - year government bond yield rose to 1.38%, and the 10 - year yield rose 3 basis points to 1.885%, the highest since June 2008. The Japanese central bank governor said he hopes to further elaborate on the future interest - rate hike path after raising the interest rate to 0.75%. Negotiations between the US and India have encountered obstacles, and the Indian rupee has fallen below the key level of 90 against the US dollar [1] Commodity Market - Black Sector: Still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, focus on the "anti - involution" situation [1] - Non - ferrous Sector: Long - term supply constraints remain unresolved and have recently been boosted by global easing expectations [1] - Energy Sector: The US and Ukraine held talks on a 28 - point plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Putin said Russia cannot accept Europe's modifications to the "peace plan." Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman submitted additional production - cut plans. The EU agreed to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027. Continue to monitor the impact of the peace talks on oil prices [1] - Chemical Sector: Pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA [1] - Agricultural Products: After the China - US talks, focus on China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [1] - Precious Metals: After clearing the short - term sharp adjustment risk, consider buying on dips [1] Strategy - The overall investment strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [2] Important News - China's RatingDog service PMI in November was 52.1, slightly lower than the previous value. The overall market fluctuated and adjusted, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 1%. Over 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets declined, and the trading volume exceeded 1.68 trillion. Trump plans to announce the next Fed chairman in early 2026. Putin said Russia cannot accept Europe's modifications to the US - proposed Russia - Ukraine "peace plan." The 5 - year and 10 - year Japanese government bond yields reached new highs since June 2008. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, far lower than expected. The Indian rupee fell to a record low against the US dollar. The EU agreed to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027 [4]