Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [4][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] - For sugar, short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] - For pulp, recent price increases are driven by the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, but the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,780 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.14%. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton. The national average price was 15,005 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [2] - The expected cotton planting area in Australia in 2025/26 is 406,000 hectares (6.09 million mu), a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The total cotton output is expected to be 943,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23% [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, USDA significantly increased the global cotton output in 2025/26, while consumption only slightly increased. The global ending inventory rose significantly compared to September and returned to inventory accumulation. US cotton production increased significantly due to higher yields, but exports only increased by 40,000 tons, increasing sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the medium - to - long - term upward drive is unclear [3] - Domestically, cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to increase. The expected output in Xinjiang is 7.3 - 7.5 million tons. In the fourth quarter, new cotton is concentrated on the market, commercial inventory is seasonally rising, and short - term supply is abundant. Zhengzhou cotton's upward movement will be suppressed by hedging orders. Downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but spinning profits have improved, and inventory pressure is acceptable, limiting the downside [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, domestic cotton demand is expected to be resilient, and after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [4] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5,366 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.30%. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,410 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 35 sugar mills in Guangxi had started crushing, 26 less than the same period last year. Cumulative cane crushing was 1.4411 million tons, 3.2521 million tons less than last year. Sugar production was 133,900 tons, 378,500 tons less than last year. The sugar production rate was 9.29%, 1.63 percentage points lower. Cumulative sugar sales were 89,400 tons, 195,600 tons less than last year. The sales rate was 66.77%, 11.15 percentage points higher. The industrial inventory of new sugar was 44,500 tons, 182,900 tons less than last year [4] Market Analysis - Yesterday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices were weakly sorted. In the international market, Brazil's strong supply strengthened the oversupply expectation, and India's sugar production in the 2025/2026 season is expected to rebound significantly, suppressing the market. In the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening, limiting the downside of raw sugar prices. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern restricts the rebound of raw sugar prices [5][6] - In the domestic market, the latest announced sugar and syrup imports are higher than expected, and with the successive start of sugar mills in Guangxi, short - term supply pressure remains [6] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Short - term fundamental drivers are downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' price - holding intention limit the downside, with a possibility of a weak rebound. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand outlook is loose, and the price trend may be pessimistic [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5,458 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 2.44%. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,525 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ussuri and Bratsk) was 5,050 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [6] - In October 2025, the total inventory at European ports decreased by 10.22% month - on - month and 6.47% year - on - year. Except for a 3.98% month - on - month increase in German port inventory, inventories at ports in the Netherlands/Belgium/France/Switzerland, the UK, Italy, and Spain decreased by 9.13%, 12.08%, 20.24%, and 2.48% respectively [7] Market Analysis - Yesterday, pulp futures prices rose strongly. On the supply side, there have been continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill in Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group announced a temporary shutdown of the Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons from December 15, expected to resume production gradually on January 7 next year, and is preparing for significant production cuts at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7] - On the demand side, the wood pulp inventory at European ports in October decreased significantly month - on - month and slightly year - on - year, indicating some improvement in demand. In the domestic market, although there has been a large amount of finished paper capacity put into production this year, terminal effective demand has been insufficient, and the paper industry is in an oversupply situation. Paper mills' operating rates are not high, and overall production has not increased significantly. The oversupply in the paper industry has led to continuous contraction of industry profits. Downstream paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement, resulting in high domestic port inventory [7] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions, pulp futures prices have risen strongly in the past two days. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should also be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]
海外减停产消息频出，纸浆期价强势反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-12-04 02:43