国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251204

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for the Industry The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it offers trend intensities for various commodities: - Strongly Bullish: Copper [9] - Bullish: Gold, Silver, Zinc, Aluminum, Cast Aluminum Alloy [5][12][22] - Neutral: Lead, Tin, Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Lithium Carbonate, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Logs, p - Xylene, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, LLDPE, Bottle Chips, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, Soda Ash, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil, Container Shipping Index (Europe Line), Short - Fiber, Pure Benzene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [15][18][27][31][36][40][46][51][55][57][61][70][73][131][85][92][97][100][103][114][117][119][138][141][148][151][159][165][171] - Bearish: Iron Ore, PP, Caustic Soda, Glass, Sugar, Live Pigs [43][76][80][90][155][167] - Strongly Bearish: None 2. Core Views The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and news of various commodities. Key views include: - Precious Metals: Gold is influenced by rising rate - cut expectations, and silver is accelerating its upward movement [5]. - Base Metals: Copper prices are rising due to multiple drivers, and zinc is oscillating with a bullish bias [9][12]. - Energy and Chemicals: PX is in a high - level oscillating market with a widening PXN, and MEG is recommended to be long while PTA is short [61]. - Agricultural Products: Palm oil is waiting for a turning - point confirmation, and soybean oil is oscillating due to insufficient US soybean drivers [141]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Rising rate - cut expectations drive price increases. The price of domestic and international gold futures and spot has increased, and ETF holdings have also increased slightly [5]. - Silver: It is accelerating its upward movement and reaching new highs. The price of domestic and international silver futures and spot has risen significantly, and trading volume has increased [5]. Base Metals - Copper: Multiple drivers, including a potential supply shortage in 2026 and strong Asian demand, are pushing prices higher. Futures and spot prices are rising, and inventory changes vary [9]. - Zinc: It is oscillating with a bullish bias. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot premiums have changed [12]. - Lead: Reduced inventory limits price corrections. Futures and spot prices are relatively stable, and inventory has decreased [15]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again. Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices have decreased slightly [18]. - Aluminum: It is running strongly, while alumina is under pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Futures and spot prices of aluminum have increased, and inventory has decreased [22]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is oscillating at a low level. Futures and spot prices are relatively stable, and inventory changes are small [31]. - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand result in a cost - limited downside. Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices are relatively stable [31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: It is oscillating within a range, and the actual progress of major manufacturers'复产 needs attention. Futures prices are oscillating, and spot prices have decreased slightly [36]. - Industrial Silicon: It is mainly running weakly. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [40]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of news. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [40]. - PX: PXN is continuously widening, and it is in a high - level oscillating market. Futures and spot prices are falling slightly, and processing margins are widening [61]. - PTA: It is in a high - level oscillating market on a single - side. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [61]. - MEG: Long MEG and short PTA positions are recommended. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [61]. - Rubber: It is oscillating weakly. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [66]. - Synthetic Rubber: It is oscillating and falling. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [70]. - LLDPE: The basis has turned positive, and supply remains loose. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [73]. - PP: It has a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is under pressure. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [76]. - Caustic Soda: The trend is still under pressure. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are falling [80]. - Pulp: It is oscillating. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [85]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [90]. - Methanol: It is oscillating, and the upside space is narrowing. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [92]. - Urea: Spot trading volume has continuously increased, and the price center has shifted upward. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [97]. - Styrene: It is oscillating in the short term. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are relatively stable [100]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [103]. - LPG: The trend is under pressure. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [105]. - Propylene: The pattern remains loose. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [106]. - PVC: It is oscillating at a low level. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [114]. - Fuel Oil: It is making narrow adjustments, and the weak trend continues. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [117]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It continued to weaken at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market slightly narrowed. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [117]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Waiting for a turning - point confirmation, and it is temporarily traded within a range. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are rising [141]. - Soybean Oil: Oscillating due to insufficient US soybean drivers. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [141]. - Soybean Meal: Oscillating as the market waits for Chinese purchases of US soybeans. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are relatively stable [148]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. Futures prices are rising slightly, and spot prices are relatively stable [148]. - Corn: Oscillating. Futures prices are rising, and spot prices are relatively stable [151]. - Sugar: Running weakly. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [155]. - Cotton: Supply and demand are both strong. Futures prices are relatively stable, and spot prices are rising slightly [159]. - Eggs: The volume of culling has increased, and the sentiment for chick - replenishing has also strengthened. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [165]. - Live Pigs: An increase in supply is approaching, and the industrial logic is returning. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are falling [167]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market. Futures prices are falling, and spot prices are relatively stable [171].