Minmetals Securities·2025-12-04 03:11Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it emphasizes the potential growth and investment opportunities in the AR glasses market. Core Insights - The development of consumer-grade AR glasses has been relatively slow due to the challenge of achieving both lightweight design and affordability. The current trend is towards a "gradual iteration" paradigm, starting with audio glasses, moving to AI glasses, and eventually to AI+AR glasses [2][3]. - The global market for AI smart glasses is projected to reach 1.52 million units in 2024, while traditional AR glasses are expected to sell 500,000 units. The acceptance of "AI+social" product positioning is reflected in the sales growth of Meta's upgraded Ray-Ban Meta glasses, which are expected to reach nearly 3 million units by Q2 2025 [2][3]. - The traditional eyewear market, with annual sales exceeding 1.5 billion units, provides a substantial replacement market for smart glasses. If the AI+AR solution matures, the penetration rate could rise from 0.01% in 2023 to 4.44% by 2030, with the global AR smart glasses market projected to grow from 735 million RMB in 2023 to 118.7 billion RMB by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 106.7% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Turning Point - The XR industry is diversifying, with AR emerging as a new growth engine. The report outlines the historical challenges and commercialization phases of AR technology, highlighting the shift from initial excitement to a recovery growth phase driven by technological advancements [12][16][24]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is evolving from a focus on hardware products to building ecological barriers. Major players like Meta and Google are adopting different strategies, with Meta focusing on AI+AR technology and Google moving towards an open ecosystem model. Domestic companies are categorized into those focusing on rapid hardware iteration and those leveraging their mobile ecosystems for cross-device collaboration [4][5][6]. Industry Chain Analysis - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core segments of the industry chain that hold significant value. The cost structure of AR glasses is detailed, with optical display units accounting for 43% of the BOM cost, followed by chip-based computing units at 31% [5][6]. Market Outlook - The report predicts a significant growth trajectory for AR glasses, with a gradual increase in sales expected as the technology matures. The AI glasses market is expected to see substantial growth, with sales projected to reach 3.5 million units by 2025, while traditional AR glasses are forecasted to sell only 650,000 units [49][52]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the gradual iteration path taken by AI glasses is more aligned with market demands, providing a foundation for the future development of AR glasses. This approach is expected to facilitate the overcoming of initial technological bottlenecks and accelerate market penetration [34][41][42].