甲醇日报：港口库存再度高位小幅去化-20251204

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the methanol market, indicating that port inventories have declined slightly from high levels. The import pressure in December is expected to reach an annual high, and the short - term port inventory pressure remains significant. On the mainland, coal - based methanol production is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period, and the inventory of mainland factories has increased slightly. The report also provides corresponding trading strategies [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Section I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Multiple figures are presented to show the basis between methanol spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, as well as the price differences between different methanol futures contracts [7][9][23] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China, and the import price differences between different regions [27][31][32] III. Methanol开工, Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol decreased to 1349430 tons (- 14070 tons), with Jiangsu port inventory decreasing and Zhejiang port inventory increasing. The mainland factory inventory was 361320 tons (- 12392 tons), and the MTO/P开工 rate was 89.93% (+ 0.28%) [1][2][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - The report presents price differences between different regions, such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, and between Taicang and Inner Mongolia [2][39][47] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [53][57] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on MA2605 for hedging - Inter - period: Expand the spread of MA2605 - MA2609 when the spread is low - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4]