国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High - level oscillatory market, maintain long PX short BZ, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][8] - PTA: Single - sided high - level oscillatory market, hold long PX short PTA, 5 - 9 positive spread [2][9] - MEG: Hold long MEG short PTA, price oscillates between 3800 - 4000, focus on positive spread of monthly difference [2][9] - Rubber: Oscillatory and weak [2][10] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillatory decline [2][14] - LLDPE: Basis turns positive, supply remains loose [2][17] - PP: Short - term rebound, medium - term trend still under pressure [2][19] - Caustic soda: Trend still under pressure [2][23] - Pulp: Oscillatory operation [2][28] - Glass: Original sheet price stable [2][32] - Methanol: Oscillatory operation, upside space narrowing [2][36] - Urea: Spot trading volume continuously increasing, price center rising [2][41] - Styrene: Short - term oscillation [2][44] - Soda ash: Spot market with little change [2][48] - LPG: Trend under pressure [2][51] - Propylene: Pattern remains loose [2][52] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2][62] - Fuel oil: Narrow adjustment, weak trend continuing [2][63] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Night session continuing to weaken, spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices narrowing slightly [2][63] - Freight index (European line): Oscillatory market [2][65] - Staple fiber: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Bottle chips: Cost - supported, short - term oscillation, medium - term pressure [2][77] - Offset printing paper: Low - level oscillation [2][80] - Pure benzene: Short - term mainly oscillatory [2][84] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the performance of various commodities in the energy and chemical industry is differentiated, with some in oscillatory markets, some under pressure, and some showing signs of improvement. Factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and market sentiment comprehensively influence the price trends of commodities [2] - For some commodities, short - term and medium - term trends may differ, and investors need to pay attention to changes in fundamentals and market news [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - PX: PXN continues to widen, with supply expected to shrink as domestic operating rate is 88.5% (-1%), some devices have maintenance plans, and demand from PTA increases as its operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%). However, overseas gasoline market impacts PX valuation [5][8] - PTA: With the restart of some devices, the operating rate rises to 73.7% (+1.6%), and polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+0.2%). Supported by PX cost, the single - sided price is in a high - level oscillatory market, but beware of the negative feedback from the terminal industry [9] - MEG: The price center drops, with supply tightening as some domestic devices have changes and overseas devices are under maintenance, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally. Hold long MEG short PTA [6][9] Rubber - The rubber market is oscillatory and weak, with the futures price falling, trading volume and open interest decreasing. The spot price also declines, and the demand from the tire industry is weak [10][11] Synthetic Rubber - The synthetic rubber market is in an oscillatory decline. Although the inventory of some products decreases, the market is affected by natural rubber and butadiene news, with weak downstream demand and high supply suppressing the price upside [14][15] LLDPE - The LLDPE basis turns positive, but the supply remains loose. The futures price is weak, which dampens market sentiment. The downstream replenishment is cautious, and the supply pressure may increase in the medium - term [17][18] PP - PP shows a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend is still under pressure. The supply is relatively high, and the demand peak has passed. Although the short - term trading volume improves due to low prices, the long - term factors such as cost, supply, and demand still dominate [19][20] Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is under pressure, with high production and inventory. The demand from the alumina industry is weak, and the export is under pressure. The spot price is expected to decline [23][25] Pulp - The pulp market is in an oscillatory operation. The price rises due to supply tightening expectations and cost support. The demand for living paper is stable, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [28][30] Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The supply pressure eases slightly, but the rigid demand is still weak, and the market is mainly for rigid - demand pick - up [32][33] Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillatory operation with narrowing upside space. The port inventory decreases, but the short - term destocking speed slows down. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction, and the MTO profit is compressed [36][39] Urea - The urea spot trading volume increases continuously, and the price center rises. The enterprise inventory decreases, and the demand from reserves and exports improves. The short - term price is strong, but the medium - term upside is limited [41][42] Styrene - Styrene is in a short - term oscillatory state. The pure benzene market is under pressure in the short - term but may improve in the future. The supply of styrene is stable, and the downstream inventory is high [44][45] Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is general, with a wait - and - see attitude [48][49] LPG and Propylene - LPG is under pressure, and propylene's pattern remains loose. The prices of LPG and propylene futures decline, and the operating rates of relevant industries change slightly [51][52] PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillatory state. The price is at a historical low, and some devices may reduce production due to losses, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [60][61] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is in a narrow adjustment with a weak trend, and low - sulfur fuel oil continues to weaken at night. The spot prices of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil decline, and the spread narrows slightly [63] Freight Index (European Line) - The freight index (European line) is in an oscillatory market. The futures price rebounds with reduced positions. The spot freight rate changes, and the future trend is affected by factors such as shipping company price increases and market supply - demand [65][74] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - Staple fiber and bottle chips are cost - supported, with short - term oscillation and medium - term pressure. The futures prices are weak, and the spot prices are stable. The sales rate of staple fiber decreases [77][78] Offset Printing Paper - Offset printing paper is in a low - level oscillatory state. The spot price is stable, and the cost increases while the profit decreases. The market demand is weak [80][81] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory increases, and the price changes slightly. The short - term market is under pressure, but there are supply contraction expectations in the future [84][85]