新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-4）-20251204

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile and weakening [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Volatile [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [4] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [4] - Logs: Consolidating at the bottom [5] - Pulp: Volatile [5] - Offset paper: Volatile [5] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.2: Volatile and bearish [7] - Soybean No.1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [10] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Wide - range volatile [12] - PTA: Volatile [12] - MEG: Weakly volatile [12] - PR: Hold and observe [12] - PF: Hold and observe [12] Core Views - The overall situation of the black industry shows an oversupply pattern, with weak domestic demand, and prices are mainly in a volatile state. The financial market has short - term adjustments but a positive medium - term trend. Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks. The forestry and paper industry has weak demand and supply pressures are gradually easing. The oil and oilseed market has uncertain demand prospects and supply is relatively abundant. The agricultural product market has supply - demand imbalances, and the soft commodity market has price fluctuations affected by factors such as supply, demand, and inventory [2][4][5][7][10][12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global shipments increased by 44.7 million tons to 33.232 billion tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals decreased by 155.5 million tons to 27.84 billion tons, daily average hot metal production dropped by 1.6 million tons to 2.3468 billion tons. The demand core lies in real estate, with new construction at 2005 levels. Port iron ore inventory rose slightly, reaching an 8 - month high. The supply - demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and prices are in high - level volatility [2] - Coal and coke: On December 1st, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, and there are still expectations of further cuts. After continuous declines, valuations are reasonable, and there was a bottom - rebound on Monday. There are concerns about supply resumption, but steel and coke enterprises still have restocking needs, providing short - term support at low levels [2] - Rolled steel and wire rod: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand, with real - estate new construction at 2005 levels. Steel prices depend on strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the implementation strength of anti - "involution" policies, and are currently in bottom - level volatility [2] - Glass: There are supply - side disturbances, with rumors of postponed cold - repairs. Float glass inventory decreased, but real - estate completion decline drags down demand. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Energy equipment and motorcycle sectors had capital inflows, while forestry and Internet sectors had outflows. China's November S&P composite PMI was 51.2, and the service PMI was 52.1. The market is in short - term adjustment but has a positive medium - term trend [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds rose by 1bp, and the central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan. Bond prices had a small - scale rebound [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting to central - bank gold purchases. It has strong currency, financial, and risk - aversion attributes. The current logic for the price increase remains unchanged, and factors such as the Fed's interest - rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term disturbances. Silver also has a volatile and bullish trend [4][6] Forestry and Paper - Logs: Last week, the average daily port shipment volume decreased by 0.31 million cubic meters to 6.13 million cubic meters. In October, the volume of New Zealand logs shipped to China increased by 2%, while China's coniferous log imports decreased by 4.67% month - on - month and 7.14% year - on - year. The expected arrival volume last week decreased by 48%. Port inventory decreased by 6 million cubic meters. Spot prices are weak, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - Pulp: The previous trading day's spot prices continued to be strong, with some prices of softwood and hardwood pulp rising. The latest foreign prices of softwood pulp remained stable, and hardwood pulp increased by $10 to $550 per ton. The cost support for pulp prices has strengthened, but the paper industry's profitability is low, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to return to volatility [5] - Offset paper: The previous trading day's spot prices were stable. Production is expected to be stable, and orders are expected to increase. Large - scale paper enterprises are firm in maintaining prices, and prices are expected to be volatile [5] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: U.S. soybean crushing reached a record high, but the U.S. biodiesel policy is uncertain. In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory were higher than expected, and exports in November decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. However, palm oil is supported by flood - induced production - reduction expectations and EU policy delays. Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and oil inventories are sufficient. Overall, oil prices are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: U.S. soybean production, exports, and ending stocks have all been reduced, but the global supply is still relatively abundant. Sino - U.S. trade agreements may promote U.S. exports, but U.S. soybean prices are higher than Brazil's. Brazilian and Argentine soybean growing conditions are mixed. Domestic oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean meal supply is sufficient. Demand is supported by high livestock inventories, but feed enterprises are cautious in purchasing. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [7] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight is showing a downward trend. Supply has increased due to farmers' accelerated sales, while demand is limited, causing settlement prices to decline. Slaughter - enterprise operating rates increased slightly but are expected to weaken next week. Pig - raising profitability has decreased, and the average weekly price is expected to continue to fall [10] Soft Commodities - Rubber: In Yunnan, raw - material prices are stable; in Hainan, output has decreased due to temperature. Thai raw - material prices rose, and Vietnamese supply is gradually recovering. Total inventory is low. Tire - enterprise capacity utilization decreased but will gradually recover. Automobile production and sales increased in October. Natural rubber inventory is in a significant accumulation phase, and prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility [12] - PX: In the long - term, crude - oil supply exceeds demand, and recent geopolitical factors have caused oil prices to rebound slightly. PX supply is high, but downstream polyester demand has increased, and PX prices are in wide - range volatility [12] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the PX end, and PTA's cost is unstable. Short - term supply - demand has improved, but seasonal weakening is inevitable. Processing margins are low, and prices are expected to follow cost fluctuations [12] - MEG: There is still long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, but the near - term situation has improved due to supply reduction. As port inventory rises, spot basis weakens, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [12] - PR: Local supply is tight, and cost support remains. The polyester bottle - chip market may stop falling and stabilize [12] - PF: Oil - price increases and low factory inventories are favorable, but terminal orders are insufficient. The short - fiber market is expected to have limited fluctuations [12][13]