黑色金属数据日报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market will continue to fluctuate, with the price range determined by factors such as macro - trading expectations, seasonal demand, and inventory pressure [2]. - The sentiment of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has improved, but the price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the decline in spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and the market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment, with a strategy of buying far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - Iron ore faces significant upward pressure, with inventory accumulation expected to continue, and the operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - On December 3rd, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of steel futures showed different changes, with some contracts rising and some falling. The spot prices of steel in different regions were relatively stable, and the basis also changed [1]. - The spot trading volume continued to decline on Wednesday, providing limited upward momentum for prices. The main contracts are shifting to 05. Macro factors such as US interest - rate cut expectations and domestic economic meetings are worth observing. The seasonal off - season in the industry has not formed a unified contradiction, and the supply - demand structure is relatively stable. Hot - rolled coils have inventory and production pressure, but there is no strong short - selling intention in the low - profit environment of steel mills. There may be some replenishment behavior in December, providing support for low prices [2]. - The trading strategy is to adopt a unilateral range - trading approach, consider participating in cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils, or use option strategies to assist in spot procurement and sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - Recently, the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have rebounded with the black - metal sector, but the driving force is insufficient. The steel price is under pressure, the direct demand is weakening, and the alloy factories have a high production volume despite poor profits. The supply - demand surplus pattern continues, and the price will be under pressure [5]. - Investment customers are advised to short at high prices, and industrial customers can use accumulation options to protect their spot positions [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the trading sentiment of coke in the domestic market is average, the decline in the spot auction prices of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal types have slightly increased. In the futures market, the performance is still weak. The steel data is good, and the coking coal price is affected by the slowdown in downstream replenishment. The market is expected to be supported by potential downstream replenishment in mid - to - late December, and the strategy is to buy far - month contracts at low prices [6]. - The speculative strategy is to mainly buy far - month contracts at low prices [8]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is at the upper limit of the range - bound movement. In the short term, the arrival of iron ore at ports has increased, and the shipment will remain stable. In the medium term, the inventory will continue to accumulate. The decline in steel - mill profits has affected production willingness, and the port inventory of iron ore will continue to rise. The operation strategy is to short at high prices [7]. - The strategy is to hold short positions [8].