宝城期货煤焦早报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term and intraday views of both coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 are "oscillation", and the reference view is the oscillation idea. For coking coal, it runs at a low level; for coke, there is insufficient cost support, and it is in oscillation consolidation [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Time Cycle Explanation - Short - term refers to within one week, medium - term refers to two weeks to one month. Oscillation stronger/weaker only applies to intraday views, and there is no distinction for short - term and medium - term views [1][4] 2. Main Variety Price Quotation and Calculation Method - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day's daytime trading closing price to calculate the rise - fall range. A decline of more than 1% is considered weak, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillation weaker, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillation stronger, and a rise of more than 1% is strong [2][3] 3. Price and Driving Logic of Coking Coal - Price: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1200.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 6.3% [5] - Driving Logic: The coking coal demand side has no obvious differences, and the supply side is the core factor leading the disk trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission has emphasized energy supply guarantee during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. Also, the recent coking coal production has not been affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume has been accelerating, weakening the previous supply - side logic that supported the coal price increase. However, considering the Political Bureau Economic Meeting in December and the year - end coal mine production reduction expectation, there is some resistance to the further decline of coking coal futures. The subsequent focus is on coal mine production [5] 4. Price and Driving Logic of Coke - Price: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port in the spot market is 1620 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decline of 2.99%; the ex - warehouse price of the quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [6] - Driving Logic: In terms of supply and demand, the latest Steel Union data shows that the average daily coke output is 110.08 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.19 million tons; the average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 234.68 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6 million tons, and the steel mill profitability rate has dropped to 35.06%, with large - scale losses in steel mills and pressure on the demand side. Overall, there is still uncertainty on the coking coal supply side in December, there is some resistance to the further decline of coke futures, the main contract is consolidating at the lower edge of the oscillation range, and the subsequent focus is on the actual production of coal mines [6]