光大期货金融期货日报-20251204

Group 1: Research Views - The A-share market oscillated and pulled back yesterday, with the TMT and real estate sectors leading the decline. The Wind All A index dropped 0.72%, with a trading volume of 1.68 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index fell 0.89%, the CSI 500 index declined 0.62%, the SSE 300 index decreased 0.51%, and the SSE 50 index dropped 0.52% [1]. - As the liquidity-driven market since June has ended, the market has refocused on fundamental logic. Currently, new productive force themes led by AI generally have optimistic expectations for the growth level in the next three years, especially in the upstream hardware manufacturing segment of the technology sector, where there are obvious price increase expectations due to supply-demand mismatches, and the medium-term profitability is considerable. However, the corresponding themes have seen significant gains since June, and there is a lack of further event-driven catalysts near the end of the year. Since November, they have gradually entered a volatile market [1]. - Traditional economic sectors led by consumption and cyclical themes are still in the process of oscillatory recovery. Although there is some logic for a catch-up rally, it is difficult to enter a fundamental bull market in the short term [1]. - There are also diverging expectations for overseas technology stocks. NVIDIA's earnings guidance remains strong, and Google has also released an upgraded large model, but the sustainable profitability of the AI application layer is being questioned. As the change of the Federal Reserve Chairman approaches, if there is an unexpected interest rate cut in 2026, it may continue to drive the technology sector to perform strongly [1]. - Against this backdrop, market trading volume and volatility are gradually decreasing, risk appetite is declining, and it is expected that the index will mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - On the closing of treasury bond futures, the 30-year main contract fell 0.26%, the 10-year main contract rose 0.06%, the 5-year main contract rose 0.07%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.03%. The People's Bank of China conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations on December 3, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%, the same as the previous time. According to qeubee statistics, there were 213.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan [1][2]. - In terms of the money market, DR001 rose 0.2 BP to 1.30%, and DR007 fell 0.01 BP to 1.44%. In early November, the central bank's purchase and sale of treasury bonds利好 materialized. In addition, MLF and outright reverse repurchases continued to have a net injection. The money market was generally loose, but the market's expectation for the central bank to cut interest rates was low. The bond market showed a situation of利好 being exhausted, with treasury bond yields oscillating slightly higher and the yield curve steepening [2]. - Looking ahead to December, with loose money but weak expectations for interest rate cuts, the economy weakening marginally but maintaining overall resilience, and inflation continuing to recover moderately, it is expected that the narrow-range oscillatory trend will continue within the year [2]. Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 03 | 2025 - 12 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,958.4 | 2,971.4 | -13.0 | -0.44% | | IF | 4,518.2 | 4,535.8 | -17.6 | -0.39% | | IC | 6,950.4 | 6,982.2 | -31.8 | -0.46% | | IM | 7,195.4 | 7,239.6 | -44.2 | -0.61% | [3] Stock Indices | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 03 | 2025 - 12 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,963.1 | 2,978.5 | -15.4 | -0.52% | | SSE 300 | 4,531.0 | 4,554.3 | -23.3 | -0.51% | | CSI 500 | 6,996.4 | 7,040.3 | -43.9 | -0.62% | | CSI 1000 | 7,248.3 | 7,313.2 | -64.9 | -0.89% | [3] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 12 - 03 | 2025 - 12 - 02 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.42 | 102.39 | 0.032 | 0.03% | | TF | 105.85 | 105.77 | 0.08 | 0.08% | | T | 108.04 | 107.98 | 0.06 | 0.06% | | TL | 113.61 | 113.89 | -0.28 | -0.25% | [3] Group 3: Market News - At the regular press conference hosted by Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian, in response to a question about the visit of Politburo member and Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi to Russia, Lin Jian stated that on December 2, Wang Yi co - chaired the 20th round of China - Russia strategic security consultations with Russian Federal Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev in Moscow and met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The two sides had comprehensive and in - depth discussions on bilateral relations and major issues of strategic and security interests, reached new consensus, and enhanced strategic mutual trust. They also agreed to fully implement the important consensus of the two heads of state and promote China - Russia relations and strategic cooperation to a higher level [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis 4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the monthly basis trends of IH, IF, IC, and IM [6][7][9]. 4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts of the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures basis, 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures inter - delivery spreads, cross - variety spreads, and money market rates [13][16][18]. 4.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the central parity rate of the euro against the RMB, 1M and 3M forward US dollar against the RMB, 1M and 3M forward euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen [21][23][25]. Group 5: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is currently the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. His futures practice qualification number is F3060829, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0015271 [30]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures varieties, is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index financial report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [30].