航运衍生品数据日报-20251204

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market for container shipping on the European route in December contracts is in the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. Although there are some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase notices), the overall market is still suppressed by the downward adjustment expectation. The key to the future trend lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the freight rate performance in the middle and late December. The recommended strategy is to wait and see as the December contract is gradually losing trading value [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - Comprehensive Index: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1403, with a 0.69% increase from the previous value of 1394; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1122, with a - 0.09% decrease from the previous value of 1123 [6]. - Regional Index: SCFI - US West is 1632, down 0.79% from 1645; SCFIS - US West is 94, down 14.29% from 1107; SCFI - US East is 2428, up 1.85% from 2384; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1404, up 2.71% from 1367; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1483, down 9.52% from 1639; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2232, up 8.61% from 2055 [6]. - Futures Contracts: For EC series contracts (EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC5602, EC2604), the current values are 1254.5, 1380.1, 1042.2, 1653.5, 1540.1, 1083.1 respectively, with corresponding increases of 1.73%, 0.38%, 0.93%, 1.22%, 0.38%, 1.03% compared to the previous values [6]. - Positions: For EC series contracts' positions (EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604), the current values are 2167, 1577, 3889, 3813, 35008, 18997 respectively, with changes of 13, - 18, - 57, - 216, - 1354, - 156 compared to the previous values [6]. - Monthly Spread: The current values of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, 02 - 04 monthly spreads are 113.4, 570.4, 457.0 respectively, with changes of 14.0, 8.9, - 5.1 compared to the previous values [6]. 3.2 Market News - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd have no specific time to adjust the "Gemini" east - west route. They are closely monitoring the situation in the Gaza region due to the cease - fire progress and have no specific schedule to change the route to pass through the Red Sea [7]. - CMA CGM refused to comment on fully returning to the Red Sea route. Although its self - operated ships' return trips seem to be 0% fully resumed, the more important west - bound first - leg resumption has not increased [7]. - The Chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, Osama Rabie, said that the Suez Canal is expected to fully restore ship traffic volume and normalize revenue by the end of 2026 [7]. - Bloomberg reported that Beijing has expressed concerns to Malaysia and Cambodia about their recent agreements with Washington and warned them to respect China's concerns [7]. 3.3 Market Quotes - The market trend of EC is volatile. The offer price is 2450. The spot prices in early December are: NSK offers 2500, HPL offers 2350, 00CL offers 2300, CMA offers 3550, EMC offers 3100, ONE offers 2450, and MSC's price is not clearly stated [10].