国富期货-早间看点：市场预计马棕11月库存为266万吨，阿根廷25／26年度大豆产量预计为4690万吨-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The inventory of Malaysian palm oil in November may reach a six - and - a - half - year high, which may put pressure on the benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures [9]. - The weather conditions in South America have different impacts on the growth of soybeans, corn and other crops, and the future weather trends need to be continuously monitored [5][6][7]. - The trading volume of domestic oils and meals decreased on December 3, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased [16]. - The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in December [18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies also show corresponding changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided, as well as the CNF premiums and quotes of imported soybeans from different origins [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - In southern Brazil, soil moisture is still favorable, but the decrease in rainfall frequency is worthy of attention. In northern Brazil, there is a lack of rainfall. In Argentina, the soybean - growing area will be dry this week and may receive rainfall this weekend or early next week. In the future, Argentina will be cool and dry in some areas, while Brazil will have wet weather overall but drought in the south [5][6][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - Malaysian palm oil inventory in November is expected to reach 2.66 million tons, with a 7.78% month - on - month increase. Production is estimated at 1.98 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous month. Exports are expected to drop 14.9% to 1.44 million tons. The annual production is expected to exceed 20 million tons for the first time [9]. - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 46.9 million tons, with a sowing area of 16.7 million hectares. Ukrainian rapeseed production is expected to be stable at 3.4 million tons [12][13]. - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a two - year high on Wednesday due to the sharp rise in Capesize ship freight rates [14]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 3, the total trading volume of domestic oils decreased by 17% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill opening rate increased to 55.09%. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" both rose [16]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000 people, and the employment growth in the second half of 2025 stagnated [18]. - Multiple US economic data such as the MBA mortgage application activity index, service industry PMI, and industrial output are released, as well as euro - zone PPI and service industry PMI data [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On December 3, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.0754, with the renminbi appreciating by 40 points. The central bank conducted 79.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 134 billion yuan [20]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On December 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 15.076 billion yuan, including 291 million yuan in commodity futures, 14.126 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 694 million yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.