申万期货品种策略日报：原油甲醇-20251204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse, and the short - term trend of methanol is oscillating weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Price and Volume: SC near - month futures price was 459.0 yuan/barrel, down 6.3 yuan (-1.35%); SC next - month was 455.5 yuan/barrel, down 9.0 yuan (-1.94%). WTI near - month was 59.58 dollars/barrel, down 1.09 dollars (-1.80%); WTI next - month was 59.41 dollars/barrel, down 1.16 dollars (-1.92%). Brent near - month was 64.82 dollars/barrel, up 0.79 dollars (1.23%); Brent next - month was 64.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.74 dollars (1.16%). The trading volume of SC next - month was 119,095, and its open interest was 39,074, with a decrease of 1984 [2]. - Spread: The current spread between SC near - month and SC next - month was 3.5 yuan/barrel, compared with the previous value of 0.8 yuan/barrel [2]. Spot Market - International Market: International crude oil spot and refined oil prices declined. For example, the OPEC basket crude oil price dropped from 63.79 dollars to 63.44 dollars [2]. - Domestic Market: In the domestic market, the prices of crude oil and refined oil also showed changes. For instance, the wholesale price index of Chinese gasoline increased from 7,475 yuan/ton to 7,484 yuan/ton [2]. Crude Oil Analysis - Supply and Demand: The market has a skeptical attitude towards the restart of the Ukraine peace process. The IEA estimated that the daily supply of 9 OPEC countries with quotas in October was 23.77 million barrels, 180,000 barrels less than that in September and 720,000 barrels higher than the target [3]. - Drilling Wells: As of November 26, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 407, 12 less than the previous week and 70 less than the same period last year [3]. Methanol Analysis - Device Operation: The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 86.47%, a 0.55 - percentage - point decrease. The overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 75.74%, a 0.51 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period but a 2.10 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year [3]. - Inventory: Coastal methanol inventory decreased by 945,000 tons (5.88%) to 1.514 million tons compared to November 20, and was 29.68% higher than the same period last year. The estimated available methanol in the coastal area was around 815,000 tons. The expected arrival volume of imported methanol from November 28 to December 14 was 1.0089 - 1.01 million tons [3].