中东高硫燃料油发货有所回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Although crude oil prices have rebounded slightly from the low level recently, the medium - term expectation of oversupply in the oil market is gradually being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is successfully reached, the geopolitical premium may further subside, suppressing the unilateral price of fuel oil from the cost side [1] - In terms of the fundamentals of fuel oil itself, the overall market contradictions are limited. The high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in the adjustment stage, and the crack spread continues to decline. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East showed signs of recovery in early December, possibly driven by the decrease in refinery maintenance and power plant demand. Currently, the high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread needs incremental demand from refineries to support it [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the overall market supply is still relatively abundant, but there are local reductions. Due to the extended maintenance of the Azur refinery, the shipping volume of Kuwait tracked from November to now remains zero. There is still short - term support for the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and the high - low sulfur spread is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - The main contract of SHFE fuel oil futures closed down 1.3% at 2,437 yuan/ton during the day session, and the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.59% at 3,028 yuan/ton at night [1] - Crude oil prices rebounded slightly from the low level, but the medium - term oversupply expectation in the oil market is being realized. If the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is reached, the geopolitical premium may subside, suppressing fuel oil prices from the cost side [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil market structure is in adjustment, crack spread is declining. Middle East high - sulfur fuel oil shipments recovered in early December, possibly due to less refinery maintenance and power plant demand. The crack spread needs refinery demand support [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is generally abundant with local reductions. Due to refinery maintenance, Kuwait's shipping volume is zero. There is short - term support, and the high - low sulfur spread may fluctuate strongly with limited upside [1] Strategy - High - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Low - sulfur: Short - term neutral, leaning towards bearish [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - term: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]