光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Firm and fluctuating [1] - Soda Ash: Weak and fluctuating [1] - Glass: Weak and fluctuating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Urea: The spot price is firm, with some regions seeing a 10 yuan/ton increase. The daily output is 19.25 tons, up 0.24 tons. Demand is strong, with the sales-to-production ratio exceeding 100% in major regions and enterprise inventory down 5.38%. However, high prices may limit downstream purchasing. Overall, the short-term demand support remains, and prices will continue to fluctuate firmly [1]. - Soda Ash: The spot price is stable, with the trade price rising. The industry's operating rate is high at 84.04%, down 0.07 percentage points. Supply is expected to increase, while demand is mainly for low-price replenishment. The supply-demand pattern is loose, and the futures market is in a low-valuation and weak state [1]. - Glass: The spot market is firm, with the average price up 1 yuan/ton. Supply is stable at 15.5 tons per day. Demand varies by region, with some areas having a sales-to-production ratio over 100% and others below. The core limitation is weak demand, and the futures market is in a low-valuation state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - Zhengshang Institute data: On December 3, the futures warehouse receipts were 7,765, down 122 from the previous day, with 1,062 valid forecasts [4]. - Longzhong data: On December 3, the daily output was 19.25 tons, up 0.24 tons from the previous day and 0.98 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate was 79.60%, down 1.22 percentage points from last year. The enterprise inventory was 129.05 tons, down 7.34 tons or 5.38% week-on-week [4][5]. - Spot prices on December 3: Shandong 1,680 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,690 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,710 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,690 yuan/ton (+10), Jiangsu 1,680 yuan/ton (unchanged), Shanxi 1,550 yuan/ton (+10) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - Zhengshang Institute data: On December 3, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 6,276, up 247 from the previous day, with 2,275 valid forecasts. The glass futures warehouse receipts were 0, unchanged [7]. - Soda ash spot prices on December 3: North China light ash 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy ash 1,300 yuan/ton; Central China light ash 1,150 yuan/ton, heavy ash 1,250 yuan/ton; East China light ash 1,200 yuan/ton, heavy ash 1,250 yuan/ton; South China light ash 1,350 yuan/ton, heavy ash 1,400 yuan/ton; Southwest light ash 1,250 yuan/ton, heavy ash 1,300 yuan/ton; Northwest light ash 930 yuan/ton, heavy ash 930 yuan/ton [7]. - Longzhong data: On December 3, the soda ash industry's capacity utilization rate was 84.04%, down from 84.11% the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,101 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton day-on-day, and the daily output was 15.5 tons, unchanged [8]. Chart Analysis - The report includes charts showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of the main contracts of urea and soda ash, as well as the price trends and spreads of different contracts [10][11][13][17] Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures, focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst working on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [24]