甲醇日评20251204：继续上行空间或有限-20251204

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report believes that the upward space of methanol 01 contract is quite limited. The main reasons are that the overall profit of downstream MTO is poor, and if the methanol price rises further, the downstream profit will deteriorate, which may lead to downstream shutdown and negative feedback on demand. Also, the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong, as the current MTO enterprise's original methanol inventory is 71.5 tons, which is on the high side in the past five years, and the port inventory is also relatively high, so the downstream enterprises have insufficient motivation to replenish inventory [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Price and Profit Information - Methanol Futures Prices: On December 3, 2025, MA01 closed at 2128 yuan/ton, down 0.19% from the previous day; MA05 closed at 2214 yuan/ton, down 0.81%; MA09 closed at 2215 yuan/ton, down 0.58% [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: On December 3, 2025, prices in most regions decreased slightly, except for Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia, which increased by 0.13% and 0.38% respectively [1]. - Coal and Natural Gas Prices: Most coal and industrial natural gas prices remained stable or decreased slightly on December 3, 2025 [1]. - Methanol Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit increased by 2.61% to 248.10 yuan/ton, and natural - gas - to - methanol profit increased by 8.66% to - 1160 yuan/ton on December 3, 2025 [1]. - Downstream Profit: The profits of some downstream products such as MTO and MTBE decreased, while those of acetic acid increased [1]. b. Important Information - Domestic Futures: The main methanol contract MA2601 showed a weak shock on December 3, 2025, opening at 2130 yuan/ton, closing at 2128 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 996,300 lots and a position of 948,400 lots, showing a decrease in volume and position [1]. - Foreign Information: Six methanol plants with a total capacity of 9.9 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are still under maintenance, and the daily methanol output has dropped to 14,400 tons. Attention should be paid to the number of loading ports in December [1]. c. Trading Strategy The report suggests holding the sold put options of the 01 contract until maturity and does not recommend chasing up the 01 contract [1].