养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic soybean products is sufficient, which restricts the price increase of soybean oil, while the improving downstream consumption limits its price decline. Currently, the driving forces of both long and short positions are not obvious. The short - term suggestion is to wait and see [3]. - The inventory of rapeseed oil in major regions across the country continues to decline, and the supply may increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. The strong performance of palm oil prices has a certain driving effect on rapeseed oil, and it may continue the volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - The SPPOMA data indicates that Malaysian palm oil may enter the production - reduction season, and the market trades the expectation of future production decline. However, the export demand in the main producing areas is still weak. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong operation in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [4]. - The supply of domestic beans is relatively sufficient, and the short - term upward driving force is expected to be insufficient. Attention should be paid to the sowing situation of South American soybeans and the export situation of US soybeans to China [4]. - The demand for aquatic feed is in the off - season, the cost - performance of rapeseed meal is not high, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is still tight. After the smooth arrival of Australian rapeseeds, it is expected to have a certain increase in the follow - up [4]. - The market focus of US corn has gradually shifted to the consumption side, and its export competitive advantage is obvious, supporting the price. The quality of corn in North China has declined, and the purchase enthusiasm for Northeast corn has increased, but the driving force for the continuous increase of the futures price is insufficient [5][6]. - The upstream and middle - stream of soybeans in the Northeast region have a bullish sentiment, while the downstream procurement is cautious. The overall supply of domestic soybeans is sufficient, but there is a structural shortage, and the price may continue to be firm in the short term [6]. - The spot price of live pigs has rebounded from the bottom, and the loss of breeding units has increased in early December, resulting in a strong sentiment of reducing supply and supporting prices. The futures price shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the mid - term suggestion is to wait for the confirmation of production capacity reduction and then choose the opportunity to buy the 2607 contract at a low price [6]. - The spot price of eggs has stopped falling and rebounded, but the continuous rise is currently lacking strength. The expectation of production capacity reduction boosts the long - term expectation. The futures price has fallen below the historical low level since 2016, and it is recommended to be cautious about short - selling [6]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis | Sector | Variety | Market Logic (Supply - Demand) | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.1 01 | The upstream and middle - stream are reluctant to sell and support prices, and the downstream is wait - and - see. The price is firm. | 4040 - 4050 | 4180 - 4200 | Range operation | Temporarily wait and see | | Oilseeds | Soybean No.2 01 | The news of Brazilian soybean arrivals disturbs, and the port soybean inventory is sufficient. The price is firm. | 3650 - 3660 | 3800 - 3820 | Volatile adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Soybean Oil 01 | The news of Brazilian soybean arrivals and domestic soybean oil export disturbs, and the inventory continues to decline. The supply is sufficient, and consumption is increasing. | 8050 - 8100 | 8330 - 8350 | Volatile adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Rapeseed Oil 01 | The supply may increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. | 9300 - 9350 | 10000 - 10050 | Volatile trend | Temporarily wait and see | | Oils | Palm Oil 01 | The data indicates that Malaysian palm oil enters the production - reduction season, but the export demand in the main producing areas is still weak. The domestic inventory decreased last week but is still higher than the same period last year. | 8300 - 8350 | 8750 - 8800 | Volatile and strong | Light - position short - term long | | Proteins | Soybean Meal 01 | The supply is sufficient, the cost is slightly weak, and the downstream demand is weak. The coastal oil mills are in a standstill, and the supply is still tight. | 2940 - 2950 | 3080 - 3100 | Volatile adjustment | Temporarily wait and see | | Proteins | Rapeseed Meal 01 | The supply is tight, but it is expected to increase after the arrival of Australian rapeseeds. | 2370 - 2380 | 2600 - 2630 | Volatile and under pressure | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Corn 01 | The quality of North China corn is poor, and the import of grains has decreased, which supports the purchase enthusiasm and price of Northeast corn. However, the upward driving force of the futures price has decreased. | 2140 - 2150 | 2280 - 2300 | Volatile consolidation | Temporarily wait and see | | Energy and By - products | Starch 01 | Follows the cost of corn for volatile consolidation. | 2350 - 2360 | 2600 - 2620 | Volatile consolidation | Temporarily wait and see | | Livestock | Live Pigs 01 | The feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of production capacity reduction is strengthened. | 11500 - 12000 | 12500 - 12800 | Volatile bottom - seeking | Turn to wait and see | | Livestock | Eggs 01 | The new production decreases, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. | 3000 - 3100 | 3300 - 3350 | Volatile bottom - seeking | Buy at a low price | [9] 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For inter - month spreads, such as soybean No.1 1 - 5, soybean No.2 1 - 5, etc., most of the strategies are to wait and see. For the live pig 1 - 3 spread, it is recommended to do a long - near and short - far arbitrage at a low price [11]. - For cross - variety spreads, such as 01 soybean oil - palm oil, 01 rapeseed oil - soybean oil, etc., some suggest waiting and seeing, and some suggest bearish operations [11]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [12]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It shows the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping dates, including CNF prices, import - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [13][14]. - Weekly Data: It presents the inventory and operating rates of various varieties such as soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts [15]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months [15]. - Weekly Data: It shows the weekly data of corn and corn starch, including the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress of corn by deep - processing enterprises [16]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including prices, production, consumption, and inventory data [17][18][19][20][21]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs): It includes charts of the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, piglet prices, white - strip pork prices, chicken - seedling prices, and culled - chicken prices [22][24][25][26][28][29][30][31]. - Oils and Oilseeds: - Palm Oil: It includes charts of Malaysian palm oil production, exports, inventory, import gross profit, import volume, domestic inventory, and daily trading volume [31][32][33][34][35]. - Soybean Oil: It includes charts of US soybean crushing volume, US soybean oil inventory, soybean crushing profit, domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, domestic soybean oil inventory, and daily trading volume [39][40][41][42]. - Peanuts: It includes charts of peanut arrival and shipment volume, peanut crushing profit, peanut operating rate, peanut inventory, and peanut oil inventory [44][45][46]. - Feed: - Corn: It includes charts of corn futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, port inventory, sales progress, import volume, and deep - processing enterprise consumption and inventory [48][49][50][51][53][54][55][56]. - Corn Starch: It includes charts of corn starch futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, enterprise operating rate, and inventory [58][60]. - Rapeseed: It includes charts of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil spot prices, basis, inventory, and crushing profit [62][64][66][68][70]. - Soybean Meal: It includes charts of US soybean growth indicators, soybean and soybean meal inventory, basis, spreads, and the ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal [75][77][79][81][83][85]. Part Four: Option Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of the historical volatility of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [89][90]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides charts of the warehouse receipt situations of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the live pig and egg indexes [92][94][95].