12月债市投资策略：关注大幅调整后的长债配置价值

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant adjustment in the long-term bond allocation value, particularly noting the weak performance of ultra-long bonds and the systemic reduction in duration by broker proprietary trading and bond funds due to limited capital gains expectations [1][2] - Since 2018, the net issuance of government bonds has rapidly increased from 4.77 trillion to approximately 13.35 trillion by December 2, 2025, with an expected net issuance of around 13.8 trillion for 2025, indicating a substantial increase in bond supply [1][2] - The report indicates a supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds, with the annual issuance of interest rate bonds with a maturity of 20 years or more increasing from 1.96 trillion in 2021 to 5.28 trillion by December 2, 2025, leading to increased duration pressure on bank proprietary bond investments [1][2] Group 2 - Recommendations for addressing the ultra-long bond issues include controlling the issuance duration of government bonds and exploring the issuance of floating rate bonds to mitigate interest rate risk for banks [1][2] - The report suggests that the central bank should increase its own allocation of ultra-long bonds and encourage insurance funds to enhance their allocation to reduce the asset-liability duration gap [1][2] - The report notes that the conditions for further policy interest rate cuts may be in place, as the overall cost of interest-bearing liabilities for banks has decreased significantly, supporting the potential for lower LPR and policy rates [2]