贵金属日评20251204：美联储未来降息预期支撑贵金属价格-20251204

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The expected future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve support the prices of precious metals. Economic and employment data are mixed, which disturbs the probability of a December interest rate cut by the Fed, but the probability remains above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, and geopolitical risks will support precious metal prices in the long - term. The supply - demand expectations for platinum and rhodium in 2025 - 26 are tight and may shift from tight to loose respectively, and their prices may be adjusted due to various factors [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Data - Gold: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract was 956.70, with a decrease of 1.72 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 273,359, a decrease of 13,624 from the previous day. The inventory (in ten - gram units) remained at 90,873. For spot Shanghai gold T+D, the closing price was - 5.15, the trading volume was 26,942, and the holding weight was 220,396. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 3.32, and the basis (spot - to - futures price difference) was - 3.73. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4,133.80, the trading volume was 169,613, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 36,573,657.72. The price of London gold spot was 4,210.30 [1] - Silver: On December 3, 2025, the closing price of the futures active contract of Shanghai silver was 13,536, the trading volume was 984,592, and the holding weight was - 53,754. The spread between the near - month continuous and far - month active contracts was - 7.00, and the basis was - 21.00. In the international market, the closing price of COMEX silver futures was 58.93, the trading volume was 107,261, and the inventory (in troy ounces) was 455,933,737.28. The price of London silver spot was 58.37 [1] Important Information - Bessent downplayed the Federal Reserve Chairman's control over interest rates and proposed setting a residence limit for regional Fed presidents, stating that tariffs could be reconfigured. The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined, with a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the largest drop since March 2023, while the US ISM services PMI expansion rate was the fastest in nine months, the price index was at a seven - month low, and the employment index was at a six - month high [1] Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies - Gold and Silver: The multi - side logic includes mixed economic and employment data disturbing the Fed's December interest rate cut probability, but the probability remaining above 80% due to some Fed officials' support. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries, central banks' continuous gold purchases, high London silver lease rates, and geopolitical risks support precious metal prices in the long - term. The trading strategy is to mainly lay out long positions when prices decline. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,800 - 4,000 and the resistance level around 4,300 - 4,600; for Shanghai gold, focus on 890 - 920 and 970 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on 49 - 54 and 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, focus on 11,500 - 12,500 and 14,000 - 15,000 [1] - Platinum: The supply - side factors include high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging production equipment affecting production, and slow growth in recycled platinum production. The demand - side factors include increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid cars due to higher emission standards and positive demand expectations from industries like hydrogen production, fiberglass, and jewelry investment. The 2025 - 26 global platinum supply - demand is expected to be tight. However, the expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and high platinum prices suppressing downstream demand may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, or consider the "long platinum, short silver" arbitrage opportunity. For London platinum, focus on the support level around 1,300 - 1,500 and the resistance level around 1,800 - 2,000; for domestic platinum, focus on 335 - 385 and 465 - 516 [1] - Rhodium: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect production, but an increase in recycled rhodium supply is expected due to the car scrapping cycle in China and globally. On the demand side, demand from cars is expected to decline due to higher emission standards and the development of new energy vehicles, and the demand elasticity in the industrial and medical fields is low. The 2025 - 26 global rhodium supply - demand is expected to shift from tight to loose. The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December, the expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, and the supply - demand shift may lead to price adjustments. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices. For London rhodium, focus on the support level around 1,190 - 1,390 and the resistance level around 1,600 - 1,800; for domestic rhodium, focus on 305 - 357 and 415 - 465 [1]