有色商品日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices soared to record highs, with the loss of domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The weakening US labor market and the improvement of the service industry index, along with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China, are the main influencing factors. The increase in LME and Comex copper inventories, along with the decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts, indicate tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories, which may lead to a continued strong performance in the market [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with aluminum alloy weakening and aluminum and alumina showing different trends. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a significant correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has gradually been realized in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the State Grid order matching concludes, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel prices also showed a mixed trend, with LME nickel rising and Shanghai nickel falling slightly. The inventory situation is complex, with LME nickel inventory decreasing and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increasing. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices reached new historical highs. The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a decrease of 32,000 in the ADP employment number in November 2025, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM service industry PMI index rose to 52.6 in November, the highest in nine months. Domestically, attention is focused on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 2,127 tons to 393,979 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. The large - scale conversion of LME copper registered warehouse receipts to cancelled warehouse receipts is seen as a sign of impending large - scale提货, indicating tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories [1]. - Aluminum: Aluminum alloy trended weakly, with the overnight main contract AD2601 closing at 20,970 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64%. Aluminum trended strongly, with the overnight AL2601 closing at 22,010 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. Alumina trended weakly, with the overnight AO2601 closing at 2,632 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.53%. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has been gradually realized in the short term. However, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel: LME nickel rose 0.92% to 14,875 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.02% to 117,590 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 3, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 88,925 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan from the previous day. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 79,800 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 161,800 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons to 26.2 million tons [4]. - Aluminum: On December 3, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 21,690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 535,900 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,833 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 59.6 million tons [5]. - Nickel: On December 3, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 253,074 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons [5]. - Zinc: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,740 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 13.76 million tons [7]. - Tin: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 309,340 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day. LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 3,145 tons, and SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons to 6,359 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: The report provides spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [9][12][14]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: The report provides near - far month spread charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, showing the historical trends of near - far month spreads for these metals [15][18][21]. - LME Inventory: The report provides LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of LME inventories for these metals [23][25][27]. - SHFE Inventory: The report provides SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of SHFE inventories for these metals [29][31][33]. - Social Inventory: The report provides social inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories for these items [35][37][39]. - Smelting Profit: The report provides charts for copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of smelting - related indicators [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have rich experience in tracking the new energy industry chain and providing in - depth reports [49][50].