对二甲苯：PXN持续走扩，高位震荡市，PTA：单边高位震荡市，MEG：多MEG空PTA持有

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PX: The PXN continues to widen, with a high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on BZ and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. PX supply is expected to contract, and demand from PTA is rising. PX - MX spread widens, and PXN has risen significantly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance under high profits [1][4]. - PTA: It is in a single - sided high - level volatile market. Hold the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA and the 5 - 9 calendar spread. Be vigilant against the negative feedback in the industrial chain due to early terminal holidays from late December to early January [1][5]. - MEG: Hold the position of going long on MEG and short on PTA. The unilateral price fluctuates in the range of 3800 - 4000, with the upside space not yet opened. Pay attention to the positive calendar spread. Overall supply of ethylene glycol is tightening, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures are 6908, 4730, 3822, 6284, and 448.1 respectively, with changes of - 4, - 22, - 55, - 20, and - 5.7 and percentage changes of - 0.06%, - 0.46%, - 1.42%, - 0.32%, and - 1.26% [2]. - Futures Month - spreads: PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, MEG1 - 5, PF12 - 1, and SC11 - 12 closing prices are - 36, - 66, - 104, - 114, and 0.3 respectively, with changes of - 6, 0, 1, - 14, and 0.8 [2]. - Spot: The spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA East China, MEG, Naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent are 848.33 dollars/ton, 4705 yuan/ton, 3829 yuan/ton, 562 dollars/ton, and 64.18 dollars/barrel respectively, with changes of - 2.34, - 15, - 47, - 5.25, and - 0.04 [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: PX - Naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread are 265.33, 159.83, 226.6, 79.25, and - 4.23 respectively, with changes of 5, - 39.41, 9.65, 8.6, and 0.11 [2]. Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha rebounded in the late session. The PX price declined today, with two January Asian spot transactions at 847 and one February Asian spot at 849. The estimated PX price is 848 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars from yesterday [3]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol declined, and market negotiation was average. The spot price of ethylene glycol dropped to below 3810 yuan/ton, and the external market price trended weakly. There were transactions for near - term and end - of - December/early - January shipments [3]. Polyester - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were slightly differentiated, with an average sales rate estimated to be below 40% by 3:30 pm. The average sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was 47% by 3:00 pm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral view [4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - PX: Domestic operating rate is maintained at 88.5% (- 1%), with Sinochem Quanzhou under maintenance. GS and Zhejiang Petrochemical have future maintenance plans, so PX supply is expected to shrink. PTA operating rate has increased to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) [4]. - PTA: The PTA load has been adjusted to 73.7% (+ 1.6%) due to the restart and load increase of some devices. Polyester operating rate remains high at 91.5% (+ 0.2%) [5]. - MEG: Coal - based ethylene glycol load is expected to further increase, and oil - based device (Shenghong Refining 100 - million - ton device) has a maintenance plan. Iranian overseas devices have been shut down, and port inventory is expected to decline marginally [5].