油脂周报：两大月报中性偏多，油脂迎来弱反弹-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - MPOB's December palm oil supply - demand data and USDA's monthly report are neutral to bullish, and the oil market may experience a weak rebound but will likely remain volatile in the short term [4][19]. - Due to low inventories in Malaysia, Indonesia, and China, as well as import profit inversion in China, palm oil may be supported; domestic soybean oil inventories are neutral and may be prone to decline; domestic rapeseed oil supply remains abundant [4][11][14][17]. Summary by Directory International Market - Malaysian Palm Oil - In December, Malaysian palm oil stocks decreased to 1709000 tons, a 6.91% month - on - month reduction. Production dropped 8.3% to 1487000 tons, exports declined about 10% to 1340000 tons, and consumption increased significantly to 310000 tons. The overall report impact was neutral [7]. - ITS predicted that Malaysian palm oil exports in the first 10 days of January decreased 21.4% month - on - month. Future rainfall in the producing areas is normal, and short - term supply tightness may continue, with stocks likely to keep decreasing [7]. - Indonesia's B40 will be fully implemented in February, with a transition period to consume B35 inventory and adjust equipment. Restrictions on POME exports may increase CPO usage [7]. International Market - US Soybeans - USDA lowered the new - crop soybean yield per acre in the US to 50.7 bushels, with production dropping to 4.366 billion bushels. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 10.81% to 8.74%, tightening supply expectations. South American soybean production is still expected to be high [8]. - The US proposed 45Z, which may affect UCO imports [8]. Domestic Palm Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 501700 tons, a 5.05% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively low level historically. The import profit inversion has widened, and the basis is stable [11]. Domestic Soybean Oil - As of January 3, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 956500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous week. The basis has declined slightly. The oil mill's soybean crushing volume and开机率 decreased. Spot market trading has become lighter, and inventory is likely to decline [14]. Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 122500 tons, with a开机率 of 32.65%. As of January 3, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory was 484000 tons, an increase of 13000 tons from the previous week. Supply is abundant, the basis is stable at a low level, and trading is light [17]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: The oil market is expected to remain volatile with a possible weak rebound. Control risks [21]. - Arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on P3 - 5 and P5 - 9 spreads at low levels [21]. - Option strategy: Stay on the sidelines [21].