Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-04 08:54Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the precious metals industry. 2. Core View The precious metals market was previously boosted by interest rate cut expectations, leading to some long - position profit - taking and causing the main contracts of Shanghai gold and silver to oscillate and correct, with increased intraday volatility. Silver continues its strong trend supported by the tight spot market, and the squeeze trading may not ease quickly in the short term. The macro data shows a mixed picture of the US economy, strengthening the narrative of a weakening labor market. Interest rate futures indicate an 89% probability of a Fed rate cut in December. The macro expectation of rate cuts continues to be positive for the gold and silver markets. In the short term, precious metals may maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend after the Fed confirms the rate - cut tone, but short - term correction risks should be noted. The London gold price has a resistance level of $4300 per ounce and a support level of $4100 per ounce; the London silver price has a resistance level of $59 per ounce and a support level of $54 per ounce [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract was 953.42 yuan/gram, down 3.3 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract was 13424 yuan/kg, down 158 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai gold main contract was 197,638 hands, down 161 hands; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract was 27,706 hands, down 3818 hands [2]. - Volumes: The trading volume of the Shanghai gold main contract was 310,489 hands, up 10393 hands; the trading volume of the Shanghai silver main contract was 2,280,887 hands, down 383516 hands [2]. - Warehouse Receipts: The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold was 90870 kg, down 3 kg; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver was 654,098 kg, up 27465 kg [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 949.32 yuan/gram, down 0.74 yuan; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver was 13,705 yuan/kg, up 13 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract was - 4.10 yuan/gram, up 2.54 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract was 281 yuan/kg, up 171 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - ETF Holdings: The SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1046.58 tons, down 1.71 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,998.55 tons, up 135.40 tons [2]. - CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions: The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC was 176609 contracts, down 27307 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CFTC was 37,259 contracts, down 5922 contracts [2]. - Supply: The total quarterly supply of gold was 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver was 32,056 tons, up 482 tons [2]. - Demand: The total quarterly demand for gold was 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver was 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2]. - Other Indicators: The US dollar index was 98.87, down 0.45; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.82%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.4 Macro Data - The VIX volatility index was 16.08, down 0.51; the CBOE gold volatility index was 21.96, down 0.53 [2]. - The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price was 1.63, up 0.01; the gold - silver ratio was 72.14, down 1.24 [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The US ISM Services PMI in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high. New order growth declined from a one - year high, the payment price index dropped to a seven - month low, and the employment index rose to a six - month high. The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, far below expectations [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 11%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 64.8%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 7.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 27.6% [2]. - The US has invited the Ukrainian delegation to the US for peace - negotiation consultations. The US believes the Moscow talks between the US and Russia have "positive significance" for the peace process [2]. 3.6 Key Events to Watch - US Challenger job cuts in November on December 4 at 20:30 - US initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 on December 4 at 21:30 - US September PCE personal consumption expenditure data (time to be determined) [2]