铜日报：高位延续强势，铜市场能否也上演逼仓剧情？-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, within the range of RMB 88,000 - 90,000 per ton for SHFE and USD 11,000 - 11,300 per ton for LME. The driving factors include short - term support from supply - side inventory decline and reduced imports, strong orders in the automotive sector on the demand side but overall procurement being constrained by high copper prices, and the impact of macro - sentiment affected by a stronger US dollar and weakened risk appetite [3][55]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Daily Market Summary 3.1.1. Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - 主力合约与基差: On December 03, the SHFE main contract price rose slightly to RMB 88,970 per ton, up RMB 260 from the previous day. The basis strengthened, with the spot premium widening to RMB 180 per ton, and the LME (0 - 3) premium remained around USD 69.18 per ton [1]. - 持仓与成交: The LME copper holding volume contracted, decreasing by 1,137 lots to 333,305 lots on December 02. The market trading volume was light, with terminal procurement mainly for rigid demand and a strong wait - and - see sentiment [1]. 3.1.2. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - 供给端: The LME inventory dropped to 28,969 tons on December 03, a month - on - month decrease of 5.23%, indicating short - term supply tightness. The arrival of imported copper decreased, and Nord Co., Ltd.'s copper foil production capacity expansion plan may increase long - term supply. The price increase of copper - clad laminates showed rising raw material cost pressure [2]. - 需求端: The demand in the automotive field was strong. Nord Co., Ltd. received an order for 373,000 tons of copper foil from Zhongchuang Xinhang on December 03. However, high copper prices inhibited downstream procurement. The transaction in the recycled copper rod market was light, the refined - scrap price difference widened to RMB 4,182.23 per ton, and terminal cable enterprises had a strong wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - 库存端: The SMM copper inventory in the country's major regions decreased by 14,500 tons month - on - month to 159,000 tons on December 01 due to reduced arrivals and good outbound shipments. The SHFE inventory slightly increased to 162,150 tons, and a slight inventory build - up is expected in the future [3]. 3.1.3. Price Trend Judgment The copper futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the price range of RMB 88,000 - 90,000 per ton for SHFE and USD 11,000 - 11,300 per ton for LME [3]. 3.2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring The report provides price and inventory data for multiple indicators on December 03, December 02, and November 27, 2025, including spot prices, premiums, LME (0 - 3) premiums, SHFE and LME prices, and LME, SHFE, and COMEX inventories, along with their changes and change rates [5]. 3.3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On December 03, Nord Co., Ltd.'s wholly - owned subsidiary Baojiada signed a copper foil supply agreement with Zhongchuang Xinhang from 2026 - 2028, with a total supply of 373,000 tons over three years, with an estimated output value of nearly RMB 40 billion. Nord has planned to expand its global total production capacity to 300,000 tons per year by 2030 [6]. - On December 02, although the copper price rose, the price of recycled copper raw materials lacked upward momentum, resulting in a continuous widening of the refined - scrap price difference. As of December 01, the refined - scrap price difference had widened to RMB 4,182.23 per ton, but the market transaction was still light [6]. - On December 02, Jiantao, a copper - clad laminate giant, issued a price increase letter, raising the prices of its full - range of copper - clad laminate products by 5% - 10% starting from that day, mainly due to increased raw material cost pressure [6]. - On December 01, the SMM copper inventory in the country's major regions decreased by 14,500 tons to 159,000 tons. It is expected that the weekly copper inventory will slightly increase in the future [7]. - On December 01, SolGold rejected a preliminary conditional acquisition offer from Jiangxi Copper Group Co., Ltd. [7]. 3.4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple data charts such as China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures Research and Development Department [8][10][12].