锂矿复产预期逐渐加强，短期或仍将继续矿证矛盾

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the lithium carbonate market on December 3, 2025, and predicts that the lithium carbonate futures price will continue to oscillate at a low level in the next one to two weeks. The supply is expanding steadily, the demand is relatively stable, the inventory is being depleted but at a slower pace, and the market is divided, resulting in limited downward space but insufficient upward driving force for the price. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 90,000 - 96,000 yuan/ton, and investors need to pay attention to the progress of the annual long - term agreement negotiation and inventory changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract dropped slightly to 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day, continuing the oscillating downward trend; the basis strengthened significantly to 440 yuan/ton, a 2,900 - yuan increase from the previous day [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: The position of the main contract expanded to 562,836 lots, an increase of 10,597 lots from the previous day, indicating increased market participation; the trading volume expanded significantly to 643,323 lots, an increase of 189,033 lots from the previous day, with accelerated capital inflow [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: On December 3, 2025, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable at 9,180 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively. The capacity utilization rate was stable at 75.34%. As of November 28, the Lijiagou lithium mine project of Chuanneng Power had basically reached full production. With the gradual commissioning of new production lines, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will increase by about 3% month - on - month, and the supply side will expand slightly [2]. - Demand Side: According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, in November, the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased by 7% year - on - year and the wholesale sales increased by 20% year - on - year, with the cumulative sales increasing by 20% - 29% year - on - year, supporting a bright demand expectation in December. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59% to 171,000 yuan/ton, the price of ternary materials remained stable, but the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% to 39,485 yuan/ton. The information shows that the cell production schedule is at a high level but slightly declined month - on - month. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the transaction price is concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation focuses on next year's price and procurement volume [2]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: On December 3, 2025, the inventory dropped to 115,968 physical tons, a decrease of 2,452 tons from the previous week, continuing the de - stocking trend. It is expected that the de - stocking amplitude in December will slow down, but the overall supply - demand pattern is tight, especially in the energy storage market, which maintains a situation of strong supply and demand [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On December 3, 2025, the price of the lithium carbonate main contract was 93,660 yuan/ton, a 3.0% decrease from the previous day; the basis was 440 yuan/ton, a 117.89% increase from the previous day; the position of the main contract was 562,836 lots, a 1.92% increase from the previous day; the trading volume of the main contract was 643,323 lots, a 41.61% increase from the previous day. The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained stable at 94,100 yuan/ton, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate remained stable, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 0.59%, the price of power - type ternary materials remained stable, and the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate dropped slightly by 0.04% [5]. - From November 21 to November 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate remained stable at 75.34%, the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 physical tons, the price of 523 cylindrical ternary cells increased by 2.37%, the price of 523 square ternary cells remained stable, the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells remained stable, the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells remained stable, and the price of cobalt - acid lithium cells increased by 1.34% [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Spot Market Quotation - On December 3, 2025, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 94,719 yuan/ton, a 145 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,500 - 96,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 94,350 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 91,000 - 92,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 91,900 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan decrease from the previous working day. The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated downward, with the main contract in the range of 92,500 - 97,600 yuan/ton and a closing price of 93,700 yuan/ton. Affected by the news, the futures price on the disk dropped to 92,500 yuan/ton. Downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the actual market transaction price is mostly concentrated at 93,000 - 94,000 yuan/ton. The annual long - term agreement negotiation between upstream and downstream enterprises is still ongoing, with the focus of the game on next year's price coefficient and procurement volume. On the supply side, with the gradual commissioning of some new production lines and the pull of downstream demand on production, it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate output in December will continue to grow, with a month - on - month increase of about 3%. In terms of demand, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December is expected to be still bright; the energy storage market continues the situation of strong supply and demand, and the supply - tight pattern remains. The production schedules of cells and cathode materials are expected to remain at a high level in December, with a slight month - on - month decline. In general, against the background of steadily increasing supply and relatively stable overall demand, it is expected that lithium carbonate will continue to be de - stocked in December, but the amplitude will be smaller than that in November [6]. 3.3.2 Downstream Consumption Situation - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association on December 3, 2025, from November 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market were 1.354 million, a 7% year - on - year increase and a 6% month - on - month increase. The cumulative retail sales this year were 11.504 million, a 20% year - on - year increase; from November 1 to 30, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles by national passenger car manufacturers were 1.72 million, a 20% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 13.777 million, a 29% year - on - year increase [6]. 3.3.3 Industry News - On November 28, 2025, Chuanneng Power (000155) mentioned in an institutional research that in terms of lithium batteries, the company holds the mining right of the Lijiagou lithium mine, with a proven ore resource reserve of 38.812 million tons, an average grade of 1.30%, a production scale of 1.05 million tons of raw ore per year, and an annual output of about 180,000 tons of concentrate. The project basically reached the designed production capacity at the end of August 2025 [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the price of lithium concentrate, the prices of lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, the price of ternary precursor, the price of ternary materials, the price of lithium iron phosphate, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, the inventory of lithium carbonate, and the selling price of cells, with data sources from iFinD, SMM, Shanghai Steel Union, and the R & D Department of Tonghui Futures [9][12][14][16][17][18][21][23].