纯苯、苯乙烯日报：纯苯现实承压偏弱，苯乙烯供应回升-20251204

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is in a short - term oscillatory structure of weak reality and strong expectation. In December, the pressure is concentrated, with inventory increasing and demand weak, so it will maintain a low - level oscillation [2]. - Styrene has entered a short - term adjustment phase with supply changes and weak demand. It will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to the supply recovery rhythm and the downstream load adjustment direction [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - Price: On December 3, the main styrene contract closed up 0.32% at 6,585 yuan/ton with a basis of 115 (+64 yuan/ton); the main pure benzene contract closed down 0.24% at 5,441 yuan/ton [2]. - Cost: On December 3, Brent crude closed at $58.6/barrel (-$0.7/barrel), WTI crude closed at $62.5/barrel (-$0.7/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,310 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton) [2]. - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 164,000 tons (+16,000 tons), a 10.7% week - on - week increase; pure benzene port inventory was 164,000 tons (+17,000 tons), an 11.6% week - on - week increase [2]. - Supply: Styrene's weekly output was 335,000 tons (-8,000 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 67.3% (-1.7%) [2]. - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries recovered. EPS capacity utilization was 54.7% (-1.5%), ABS was 71.2% (-1.2%), and PS was 57.6% (+1.7%) [2]. (2) Views - Pure benzene: The overseas gasoline - blending logic has weakened, and the real - end pressure is concentrated in December. Demand remains weak in the off - season, and there are still expectations of supply contraction in early 2026. The import volume after January is uncertain [2]. - Styrene: The supply has changed significantly, and the demand is still in the off - season. The previous tight - balance state may turn to a wide - balance state. Cost is affected by geopolitical factors and interest - rate cut expectations [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - Styrene futures main contract rose 0.32% to 6,585 yuan/ton; spot price remained unchanged at 6,654 yuan/ton; basis increased by 125.49% to 115 yuan/ton. Pure benzene futures main contract fell 0.24% to 5,441 yuan/ton; East China spot price fell 0.28% to 5,310 yuan/ton [5]. - Pure benzene prices in South Korea, the US, and CFR China all increased. The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 9.34%, and the spread between East China and Shandong decreased by 60% [5]. - Brent crude fell 1.15% to $58.6/barrel, WTI crude fell 1.14% to $62.5/barrel, and naphtha price remained unchanged at 7,071.5 yuan/ton [5]. (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Styrene production in China decreased by 2.40% to 335,000 tons; pure benzene production decreased by 0.11% to 446,000 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu increased by 10.72% to 164,000 tons, and factory inventory increased by 1.24% to 190,000 tons. Pure benzene port inventory nationwide increased by 11.56% to 164,000 tons [6]. (3) Capacity Utilization - Among pure benzene downstream, styrene capacity utilization decreased from 69.0% to 67.3%, caprolactam decreased from 88.2% to 86.7%, while phenol and aniline increased. Among styrene downstream, EPS and ABS decreased, and PS increased to 57.6% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided another CAD 235 million in aid to Ukraine [8]. - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8]. - Fitch lowered its oil price forecast for 2025 - 2027, reflecting market oversupply [8]. - Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels despite US pressure [8]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that some areas of the US economy had shown signs of weakness and needed interest - rate cuts [8]. - The US EIA crude inventory for the week ending November 28 increased by 574,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [8]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import and domestic pure benzene costs, styrene port and factory inventories, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and capacity utilization rates of related products [13][18][21][22][24][28][29]