SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-12-04 09:19Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target market value of 3.36 trillion RMB and a target price of 192.48 HKD for FY2026 [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba has restructured its organization to focus on "e-commerce, cloud + AI," enhancing resource allocation and competitive response [2][25]. - The company is actively participating in the instant retail market, which is expected to exceed 2 trillion RMB by 2030, thus defending its market share [16]. - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a top-tier player in AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in self-developed capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce and internet technology group that has recently restructured its business into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others [2]. Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with a notable increase in daily active users (DAU) and order volumes since May [3]. - The company has seen a significant rise in order volume, with peak orders reaching 120 million in July, and a substantial increase in market share in the food delivery sector [3][19]. - Alibaba's investment in user experience (UE) is expected to improve as scale and efficiency increase, with current losses narrowing significantly [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 [5]. - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is valued at 11 times earnings, while the cloud business is valued at 7 times sales [5]. - The report anticipates stable market share for Alibaba's traditional e-commerce business and significant growth potential for its cloud services driven by AI [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the instant retail market, with Alibaba's aggressive strategies to boost user engagement and order fulfillment capabilities [19][39]. - Alibaba's cash reserves are the highest among competitors, providing a strong foundation for sustaining long-term investments in the instant retail sector [51][52]. - The introduction of the "High De" street ranking by Amap aims to synergize online and offline services, indicating potential growth in the in-store business [58].