银河期货航运日报-20251204

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping daily report dated December 4, 2025, focusing on the container shipping industry, specifically the Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2][4] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1,649.1, down 4.4 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 270.0 (down 48.37%) and an open interest of 3,731.0 (down 2.15%) [3] - EC2602 closed at 1,585.0, up 44.9 (2.92%), with a trading volume of 27,304.0 (up 22.44%) and an open interest of 34,222.0 (down 2.25%) [3] - EC2604 closed at 1,090.1, up 7.0 (0.65%), with a trading volume of 2,881.0 (down 12.78%) and an open interest of 19,129.0 (up 0.69%) [3] - EC2606 closed at 1,255.1, up 0.6 (0.05%), with a trading volume of 178.0 (down 53.28%) and an open interest of 2,141.0 (down 1.20%) [3] - EC2608 closed at 1,385.6, up 5.5 (0.40%), with a trading volume of 125 (down 49.39%) and an open interest of 1,549 (down 1.78%) [3] - EC2610 closed at 1,040.2, down 2.0 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 297 (down 24.81%) and an open interest of 3,961 (up 1.85%) [3] Month - Spread Structure - The spread between EC12 - EC02 was 64, down 49.3; EC12 - EC04 was 559, down 11.4; EC02 - EC04 was 495, up 37.9; etc [3] Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line was at 1483.65 points, down 9.50% week - on - week and 47.55% year - on - year [3] - SCFIS US West Line was at 948.77 points, down 14.36% week - on - week and 44.77% year - on - year [3] Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month was at $58.70 per barrel, up 0.38% week - on - week and down 14.12% year - on - year [3] - Brent crude oil near - month was at $62.35 per barrel, up 0.56% week - on - week and down 13.6% year - on - year [3] Group 3: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - In the morning, the futures market declined due to unconfirmed rumors of extra ships, but the market sentiment was boosted by the expected price increase by shipping companies in January. On December 4, EC2512 closed at 1585 points, up 2.92% from the previous day [5] - On November 28, the SCFI European Line was at $1404/TEU, up 2.7% week - on - week. The latest SCFIS European Line released after the market on Monday was at 1483.65 points, down 9.5% week - on - week, slightly lower than market expectations [5] - MSK issued a price increase notice for January after the market today, targeting $2275/3500. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies and the actual implementation of the price increase [5] Logical Analysis - In the spot market, MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote in Week 51 was $2400, up $200 week - on - week. It issued a price increase notice for January with a target of $2275/3500 [6] - Some shipping companies have started to announce price increases for the second half of December, with online prices ranging from $2800 - $3500, and there are still price increase expectations for January [6] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for shipments from December to January is expected to gradually improve. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to 5 Nordic ports in December was 28.32 million TEU, and 29.41/28.05 million TEU in January/February 2026 respectively [6] - Geopolitically, the second - stage peace talks are expected to be tortuous. It is difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, but the number of return ships via the Suez Canal is expected to gradually increase, and the probability of resuming shipping after the Spring Festival may gradually increase [6] Trading Strategies - For the EC2602 contract, long positions can consider taking profits in batches on rallies, and pay attention to the price increase announcements of shipping companies and the improvement in cargo volume [7] - For the 2 - 4 calendar spread, take profits in batches on rallies [8] Group 4: Industry News - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 89%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11% [9] - Maersk currently has no specific timeline to divert the East - West (Gemini) route through the Red Sea [9] - On December 3, Trump said that either the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement would expire, or a new agreement would be reached with Mexico and Canada [10] - On December 3, Hamas strongly condemned the Israeli military's air strikes on displaced people's tents and areas near Kuwait Hospital in Khan Younis, Gaza Strip [10] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][17][19]