Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-04 09:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will experience a moderately strong oscillation, and it is recommended to monitor whether it can break through 23,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22,865 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation was 3,062 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars [3]. - The total open interest of Shanghai zinc was 201,973 lots, an increase of 6,148 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 15,926 lots, an increase of 3,565 lots [3]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 95,916 tons, a decrease of 4,431 tons; the LME inventory was 52,450 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 22,990 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 23,090 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract was 125 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) was 186.85 US dollars/ton, down 64.13 US dollars [3]. - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming was 19,470 yuan/ton, up 560 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai was 16,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance was - 21,000 tons, an increase of 6,800 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance was 47,900 tons, an increase of 17,700 tons [3]. - The global zinc mine production was 1.0976 million tons, an increase of 21,400 tons; the domestic refined zinc production was 625,000 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume was 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume was 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons; the refined zinc export volume was 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory was 137,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets was 2.32 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets was 2.28 million tons, a decrease of 90,000 tons [3]. - The monthly new housing construction area was 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production was 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc was 11.64%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc was 11.64%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 10.09%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options was 9.1%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 3, the State Council conducted its 17th special study on "deeply promoting people - centered new urbanization and focusing on building a new pattern of integrated urban - rural development" [3]. - The US ADP employment in November unexpectedly declined by 32,000 people, the largest drop since March 2023, with a sharp increase in unemployment among small businesses [3]. - The US ISM services PMI index in November rose to 52.6, a nine - month high, with an expected value of 52.0 [3]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - The upstream zinc ore import volume declined due to the worsening internal - external price ratio and increased losses in importing zinc concentrates in China [3]. - Domestic smelters have started winter raw material reserves, preferring domestic zinc concentrates, leading to increased competition and a significant decline in processing fees at home and abroad, squeezing smelter profits and restricting production in some smelters [3]. - Overseas supply remains tight, the Shanghai - London ratio has remained low, imports are at a loss, and the export window is open, expected to turn into a net export situation to ease domestic supply pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening, while the automotive sector shows some bright spots due to policy support [3]. 3.9 Technical Analysis - Open interest has increased along with rising prices, indicating a warming up of the bullish sentiment [3].