Report Summary - Report Date: December 4, 2025 - Report Type: Steel & Iron Ore Daily Report - Author: Tu Weihua 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Rebar: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.35%, with increasing volume and open interest. Currently, rebar supply has dropped to a low level, supporting prices, but demand is also weakening. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially in the situation of weak supply and demand, and the upward driving force is questionable. The relative advantage is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The main contract price fluctuated, recording a daily increase of 0.33%, with increasing volume and open interest, and the position transfer was completed. At present, the supply pressure of hot - rolled coils has been relieved to a limited extent, while the demand has been continuously weakening, and the fundamentals are weak. The coil price continues to be under pressure. The relative advantage is the optimistic expectation brought by the approaching major meeting. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate and bottom - seek. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - Iron Ore: The main contract price fluctuated weakly, recording a daily decline of 0.63%, with increasing volume and decreasing open interest, and the position transfer was about to be completed. Currently, the previous bullish factors have supported the ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for iron ore is running weakly, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the over - valued ore price continues to be under pressure, with a weak upward driving force. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Urban Old Community Reconstruction: From January to October 2025, 25,100 urban old communities across China started reconstruction. 16 regions have completed their annual urban old community reconstruction plans, and the national plan for the year is to start reconstructing 25,000 communities [7]. - Global New Ship Orders: From January to October this year, affected by factors such as economic slowdown, over - capacity, and international game, the global ship market declined significantly. A total of 1,632 new ship orders were placed, with a deadweight tonnage of 94.87 million, a year - on - year decline of 44.5%. It is expected that the average annual demand in the global shipbuilding market during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period will be about 110 million deadweight tons and 42 million compensated gross tons, about 20% lower than the average during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, but still about 50% higher than the average during the "13th Five - Year Plan" period [8]. - Canadian Steel Mill Shutdown: Algoma Steel in Canada plans to close its blast furnaces and coking production facilities in early 2026 and lay off about 1,000 employees due to the impact of US tariff policies. The company will also advance its transformation plan to early 2026, fully switching to the electric arc furnace steel - making process. In the three months ending September 30, the company's direct tariff cost reached 89.7 million Canadian dollars (about 64.1 million US dollars), and the freight volume to the US accounted for about half of the total steel sales [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,270 yuan, the Tianjin price was 3,210 yuan, and the national average price was 3,327 yuan, with price changes of 0, - 10, and - 2 respectively [10]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The Shanghai price was 3,310 yuan, the Tianjin price was 3,240 yuan, and the national average price was 3,331 yuan, with price changes of 0, 0, and - 1 respectively [10]. - Tangshan Steel Billet: The price was 2,990 yuan, with no price change [10]. - Zhangjiagang Heavy Scrap: The price was 2,080 yuan, with no price change [10]. - Iron Ore: The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 790 yuan, with a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder was 802 yuan, with a decrease of 1 yuan. The Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 12.42 yuan and 25.42 yuan respectively, with increases of 0.18 yuan and 0.12 yuan. The SGX swap price was 107.85 yuan, with an increase of 0.45 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 108.00 yuan, with an increase of 0.20 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change (%) | High | Low | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | - | 3,175 | 0.35 | 3,175 | 3,150 | 873,461 | 122,794 | 1,411,905 | 114,799 | | Hot - Rolled Coil | - | 3,332 | 0.33 | 3,336 | 3,306 | 381,701 | 147,082 | 1,034,595 | 492,093 | | Iron Ore | - | 794.5 | - 0.63 | 799.5 | 790.5 | 186,737 | 17,247 | 293,727 | - 41,114 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts The report provides charts on steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories, total inventories (steel mill + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventories, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories. It also shows charts on steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio of 247 steel mills, independent electric furnace operating rate, and the profit and loss situation of independent arc - furnace steel mills [16][21][31]. 3.5后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand are both weakening. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 167,700 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 109,600 tons. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. It is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [40]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The supply - demand pattern is weak, with limited inventory reduction. The weekly output decreased by 47,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 53,600 tons. The price continues to be under pressure and is expected to continue to fluctuate and bottom - seek, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [40]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The terminal consumption of ore is decreasing, and the supply is at a high level. The high - valued ore price continues to be under pressure, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].
钢材&铁矿石日报：基本面迎变化，钢矿震荡运行-20251204
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-12-04 09:33