金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251204

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost side in the short - term. Supply reduction is significant recently, but previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a shift to inventory accumulation. The cancellation of export restrictions by India boosts exports, while downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken [3]. - MEG: Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, MEG may oscillate at a low level. It is continuously accumulating inventory, though the accumulation rate has decreased. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, and an Iranian plant has shut down [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Market Performance: On December 04, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: The market price in East China was 4685 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a 0.14 - day increase from the previous week [3]. - Main Force Movements: Short - side main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - Market Performance: On December 04, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened to - 8 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: The market price in East China was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. The production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly MEG port inventory in East China totaled 71.9 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase from the previous week [4]. - Main Force Movements: There was a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4].