银河期货油脂日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term oils and fats lack driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long at low prices and high - throw and low - suck range operations [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot prices and basis: - For soybean oil, the 2601 closing price is 8254, down 32. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8514, 8534, and 8414 respectively. The basis in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin is 280, 260, and 160 respectively, with no change [2] - For palm oil, the 2601 closing price is 8666, down 64. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8616, 8676, and 8776 respectively. The basis in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin is - 50, 10, and 110 respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, and 0 [2] - For rapeseed oil, the 2601 closing price is 9618, down 93. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangxi, and Guangdong are 9888, 10168. The basis in Zhangjiagang and Guangdong is 270 and 550 respectively, with changes of - 10 and 0 [2] - Monthly spreads: - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of soybean oil is 184, down 8; that of palm oil is - 30, up 4; that of rapeseed oil is 181, down 48 [2] - Cross - variety spreads: - The 01 - contract Y - P spread is - 412, up 32; the OI - Y spread is 1364, down 61; the OI - P spread is 952, down 29; the oil - meal ratio is 2.91, up 0.19 [2] - Import profits: - For 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia with a 1 - month ship - date, the CNF price is 1051, and the disk profit is - 199. For crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam with a 1 - month ship - date, the FOB price is 1079, and the disk profit is - 941 [2] - Weekly commercial inventories (in 10,000 tons): - In the 48th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory is 117.9 (last week: 118.0, same period last year: 98.2); palm oil inventory is 65.4 (last week: 66.7, same period last year: 51.7); rapeseed oil inventory is 36.8 (last week: 38.5, same period last year: 45.0) [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International market: An institution's report shows that Argentina's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to be 46.9 million tons, the same as the previous forecast, with a forecast range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the early - season sowing is continuously delayed, soil moisture in the Pampas planting belt is declining, and the long - term weather outlook is bleak [4] - Domestic market: - Palm oil: As of November 28, 2025 (the 48th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory is 653,500 tons, a decrease of 13,600 tons (2.04%) from last week. It is currently at a neutral level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable, the import profit inversion has narrowed to about - 200. There are rumors of palm oil purchases today. The basis is stable with a slight decline. Short - term palm oil lacks obvious driving forces, with a ceiling and a floor, and it is recommended to continue to wait and see [4] - Soybean oil: Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2008 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.54%, a decrease from the previous week. As of November 28, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory is 1.1788 million tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons (0.09%) from last week. It is currently at a relatively high level in the same period of history, but the inventory inflection point has been reached. The domestic demand is average, and the trading has become lighter. As soybean arrivals gradually decrease and soybean crushing declines from the high level, the soybean oil inventory may slightly decrease, but the overall inventory is still sufficient. Short - term domestic soybean oil supply is abundant, and it is difficult to rise, lacking obvious driving forces. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider lightly testing long on pullbacks [4][7] - Rapeseed oil: Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%, and the rapeseed inventory has bottomed out. As of November 28, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 368,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons from last week, still at a high level in the same period of history, but the inventory is continuously decreasing marginally. The FOB quote of European rapeseed oil is stable at around $1100, and the import profit inversion has expanded to about - 1000. The market still has the sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight decline. It is expected that the coastal de - stocking trend will continue. The market is still focused on the customs clearance speed and crushing situation after the arrival of Australian rapeseed. Overall, the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decrease marginally, which supports the rapeseed oil price. When rapeseed procurement has not been fully liberalized, it is advisable to consider high - throw and low - suck operations [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term oils and fats lack driving forces, with large intraday fluctuations and overall maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term long at low prices and high - throw and low - suck range operations [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and the monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [14][16]