2026年度宏观展望：承前启后，“质”创未来

Group 1: Economic Trends - Domestic demand and real estate are weak, while exports show resilience, with fixed asset investment growth declining to -1.7% in October 2025[9] - From January to October 2025, trade surplus increased by $174.7 billion compared to the same period in 2024, contributing positively to the economy[16] - Consumer retail sales growth for January to October 2025 was 4.3%, but October saw a drop to 2.9%[24] Group 2: Financing and Inflation - Financing demand remains poor, with social financing growth primarily driven by government bonds, while credit growth is declining[46] - M2 money supply growth in October 2025 was 8.2%, with a significant portion attributed to month-on-month increases[49] - CPI growth was negative for several months, with October's CPI at 0.2%, indicating ongoing deflation risks[52] Group 3: Policy Outlook - The GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5.0%, with a need for a 4.6% growth in Q4 to meet this target[56] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts in 2026[59] - The government budget for 2025 is set at CNY 29.7 trillion, with a 4.4% year-on-year increase, but actual spending is lagging behind targets[33] Group 4: Five-Year Plan Execution - The Five-Year Plan addresses current economic issues, with a projected increase in household consumption share by 15-20% over the next five years[80] - Employment and income growth are critical, with a focus on enhancing service sector contributions to job creation[85] - The report emphasizes the need for innovation and self-sufficiency in key technologies to address manufacturing capacity issues[92]