沥青日报：震荡运行-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt supply is expected to slightly increase as some refineries resume production, while demand will weaken further due to the end of road construction in the north and limited project increments in the south. The asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 7.0 million tons month-on-month and a decrease of 34.4 million tons year-on-year. The downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined last week. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.74% to 26.21 million tons week-on-week, at a neutral level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years. The crude oil price oscillated at a low level, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened. This week, the asphalt operating rate will slightly increase, but overall demand will be weak. The asphalt price in Shandong has been falling, and the basis is at a neutral level. The market is cautious about winter storage contracts, and the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2601 rose 1.06% to 2,952 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,941 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 2,972 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 8,340 to 104,372 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price of asphalt in Shandong continued to fall to 2,940 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to -12 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to October decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate was flat compared with that from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry from January to October decreased by 4.3%, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed assets investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October decreased by 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September. As of the week of November 28, the downstream operating rates of asphalt mostly declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 5 percentage points to 29% week-on-week. From the perspective of social financing stock, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock from January to October was 8.5%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations. In terms of inventory, as of the week of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week at 14.5%, near the lowest level in recent years [4]