PVC日报：震荡下行-20251204

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend recently. The supply side has an increasing PVC operating rate and new production capacity, while the demand side is affected by the ongoing adjustment of the real estate industry, and the inventory pressure is still relatively large [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in Northwest China is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22% and remains at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate is basically stable. The termination of India's BIS policy on PVC has alleviated concerns about China's PVC exports to India, and the anti - dumping duty is likely to be cancelled. However, Formosa Plastics' December quotes have generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton, and last week's export orders have declined. The social inventory has increased slightly and remains high. The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and although the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded, it is still near the lowest level in recent years. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The meeting on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition has given some boost to bulk commodities, but factors such as the end of maintenance of some enterprises, high futures warehouse receipts, and the traditional off - season in December will lead to a weak and volatile PVC market [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,483 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,540 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,500 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.90% and a decrease in positions of 31,263 to 990,081 hands [2]. Basis - On December 4th, the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,435 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,500 yuan per ton. The current basis is - 65 yuan per ton, strengthening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply Side: The operating rates of some devices such as Henan Lianchuang and Shaanxi Jintai have increased, and the PVC operating rate has increased by 1.39 percentage points to 80.22%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year, Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 - ton/year, and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year, have been put into production or are operating at low loads [4]. - Demand Side: The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The sales area of commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. The sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. The new construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.8%. The completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.9%. As of the week of November 30th, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.17% week - on - week and was near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of November 27th, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.99% week - on - week to 1.0428 million tons, 23.44% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6].