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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices rebounded recently due to gas - curtailment expectations, macro - level boosts, and export rumors, but the high - price acceptance of downstream buyers needs attention. As it is approaching the contract roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1] - The short - term spot price of urea is expected to be stable. The demand side is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly. The daily output is expected to decrease further with the shutdown of southwest plants [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened higher and weakened during the day. After the trading volume improved, upstream factories raised prices. Although the futures closed down, the pending orders were still sufficient. The daily output decreased slightly due to winter natural gas curtailment and is expected to decline further with southwest plant shutdowns. The demand side strengthened, with the compound fertilizer factory's operating load increasing by 3.47%. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,695 yuan/ton, closed at 1,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,281 lots and short positions increased by 739 lots. For example, Ping An Futures had a net long increase of 1,567 lots and Dongzheng Futures had a net long decrease of 2,657 lots [2] - On December 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 9,353, an increase of 1,588 compared to the previous trading day. For instance, Jiashili Pingyuan (Yuntu Holdings UR) increased by 176 lots [2] Spot - After the transaction improved, upstream factories raised prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,690 yuan/ton, with Henan factories offering lower prices [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.48% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a 5.38% decrease [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 5, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period, a 10.53% increase [10] Downstream Data - From November 29 to December 5, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.53%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 61.66%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week [12]