2026年可转债年度策略：内生时代，博弈稀缺

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the global energy network, driven by dual changes in supply and demand, with a focus on carbon reduction and the AI computing revolution [3][12] - The energy supply side is undergoing a deep restructuring due to carbon neutrality goals, leading to an increased share of renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and nuclear power [3][12] - The demand side is experiencing a qualitative shift in energy consumption driven by AI applications, including AI training, data centers, and consumer AI devices, which significantly alters electricity demand [3][12] Group 2 - The report outlines a comprehensive investment narrative framework termed "source-network-load-storage," which encapsulates the entire energy production, transmission, consumption, and regulation chain [10] - Key investment themes include clean energy supply, smart grid construction, AI infrastructure investment, and energy storage solutions, indicating a robust future capital expenditure trajectory [10][11] - The report identifies specific catalysts for investment in the first and second halves of 2026, including advancements in photovoltaic technology, nuclear power, and AI chip development [14] Group 3 - The report discusses the structural dynamics of convertible bond supply, emphasizing the importance of industry supply-demand mismatches and the cyclical nature of capital expenditures [18][19] - It notes that the primary driver for issuing convertible bonds is capacity expansion, particularly during industry upturns when companies seek to capitalize on growth opportunities [21] - The cyclical nature of convertible bond issuance is linked to industry performance, with a tendency for increased issuance during periods of high industry profitability and demand [36][39] Group 4 - The report indicates a significant contraction in the convertible bond market in 2025, with a notable number of bonds maturing or being redeemed, leading to a supply shortage [39] - It suggests that the current supply shortage is a result of multiple factors, including a rebound in industry sentiment, a decline in issuance willingness, and regulatory changes affecting refinancing [41] - The report anticipates that once necessary adjustments are made, a new wave of convertible bond issuance may emerge as companies seek to expand capacity in a recovering market [41] Group 5 - The report provides a list of relevant investment targets across various sectors, including high-end power equipment, energy storage, and AI infrastructure, indicating potential opportunities for investors [55][56] - Specific companies and their convertible bonds are highlighted, such as Guoli Convertible Bond in high-voltage direct current and Yihua Convertible Bond in energy storage, showcasing targeted investment strategies [55][56] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring developments in key technologies and market conditions to identify promising investment opportunities in the evolving energy landscape [55][56]