Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of weak demand and supply adjustment, with the disk showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend [2] - The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, and the disk is expected to fluctuate mainly [3] - The coke market has a certain expectation of downstream replenishment, and the price is likely to maintain a rebound rhythm in the short term [4] - The coking coal market is affected by the high volume of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the price is likely to be dragged down in the short term [5] - The silicon manganese market is affected by the possible reduction of Ghana's shipment volume, and the price may rise in the short term [6] - The ferrosilicon market has a certain expectation of cost reduction, and the demand is still resilient, with the supply decreasing and the inventory slightly decreasing [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's disk continued to rise in a volatile manner. This week, the apparent demand for thread continued to decline, production decreased significantly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, inventory decreased slowly, and the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Iron water production declined, the downstream's carrying capacity was insufficient, steel mills continued to be in a loss state, and there is a high possibility of further production cuts in blast furnaces in the later stage, and the supply pressure will gradually ease [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth continued to fall, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and domestic demand remained weak overall. Steel exports declined from a high level [2] - Spot prices are relatively firm in the off-season, and there are still expectations of favorable policies at the macro level. The disk continues to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the rhythm may still fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - Today's disk of iron ore weakened slightly. On the supply side, global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, the domestic arrival volume remained at a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate and approached the annual high [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel weakened, production further declined, and iron water is still in a seasonal production reduction trend. There is room for further weakening of iron ore demand [3] - The macro atmosphere is warm, an important meeting will be held in December, and the market has certain expectations for the introduction of policy benefits [3] - The fundamental situation of iron ore is loose, and there are short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate mainly [3] Coke - The price was volatile and strong intraday. The market has a certain expectation of downstream replenishment, and the price rebounded slightly intraday [4] - Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly increased. Coke inventory has increased slightly. Currently, downstream purchases on demand in small quantities, and inventory changes are not significant. Traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water is seasonally declining, the current demand for raw materials is still resilient, the profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing prices for raw materials is strong [4] - The coke disk is at a premium, and the price is likely to maintain a rebound rhythm in the short term [4] Coking Coal - The price was volatile and strong intraday. The market may expect downstream replenishment, and the price has rebounded [5] - The production of coking coal mines has increased slightly, the spot auction transactions are average, and the transaction prices are mainly falling. Terminal inventory has decreased slightly [5] - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the inventory at the production end has increased slightly [5] - Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, downstream iron water is seasonally declining, the current demand for raw materials is still resilient, the profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing prices for raw materials is strong [5] - The coking coal disk is at a discount, and the price is likely to be dragged down in the short term due to the continuous high volume of Mongolian coal customs clearance [5] Silicon Manganese - The price fluctuated upward intraday. Driven by the rebound of the disk, the spot price of manganese ore has increased [6] - Pay attention to the subsequent impact of Ghana's shipment volume. Currently, there is a structural problem with the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. If Ghana's reduction is large, the price may rise in the short term [6] - On the demand side, iron water production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese has decreased slightly, but the production is still at a high level, and the silicon manganese inventory has slowly increased [6] - The supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Observe the strength of the bottom support [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated upward intraday. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is a certain expectation of a decline in electricity costs and semi-coke prices [7] - On the demand side, iron water production has rebounded to a high range. Export demand has decreased to above 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, the secondary demand has increased marginally, and the overall demand is still resilient [7] - The supply of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. Observe the strength of the bottom support [7]
国投期货黑色金属日报-20251204
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-12-04 11:22