国投期货能源日报-20251204

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward or downward trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [2] Core Viewpoints - Short-term news for crude oil is mixed, leading to increased price volatility, while in the medium to long term, the supply-demand balance is loosening, putting downward pressure on the price center [3] - The fuel oil market remains weak, with high-sulfur fuel oil supply affected by geopolitical factors and low-sulfur fuel oil facing pressure from refinery outages and weakening product cracks [4] - Asphalt prices show regional differences, with overall commercial inventory depletion slowing, and the BU is expected to remain under pressure but with limited short-term downside [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - EIA weekly data shows US crude oil inventory build-up, and gasoline inventory builds up significantly more than expected [3] - Venezuelan oil exports rose to 921,000 barrels per day in January [3] - Putin stated that Russia cannot accept Europe's attempt to modify the US-proposed Russia-Ukraine "peace plan" [3] - Multiple Russian cargo ships were attacked in the Black Sea near the Turkish coast [3] Fuel Oil & Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market continues to be weak, with cracking spreads and spot premiums both weakening [4] - High-sulfur fuel oil: Difficulties in Russia-Ukraine negotiations keep geopolitical risk premiums high, and sanctions increase shipping difficulties, but increased Middle Eastern shipments after refinery maintenance may offset some supply disruptions [4] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Affected by unplanned overseas refinery outages, and weakening product cracks continue to put pressure on it [4] Asphalt - Asphalt prices in the Northeast rebounded slightly, while prices in Shandong, East China, North China decreased slightly, and prices in the Northwest dropped significantly [5] - Since mid-November, weekly asphalt shipments have been at the lowest level in the same period in the past four years [5] - Social inventory decreased slightly month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase has been expanding since late October; refinery inventory increased slightly month-on-month, and the overall commercial inventory depletion has slowed down significantly [5]