瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20251204

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International corn market prices are suppressed by high supply pressure and relatively loose supply - demand conditions, but the strong US domestic corn spot market provides support [2]. - In the domestic market, in the Northeast, growers are reluctant to sell, and buyers are active. Deep - processing enterprises' prices are likely to rise. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the market volume is increasing, and processing enterprises' purchase prices fluctuate slightly. Corn futures prices are generally in a strong - side shock [2]. - For corn starch, the supply pressure increases due to abundant raw materials and rising industry operating rates, but strong downstream demand and smooth enterprise sales lead to a decline in inventory. Starch futures prices also maintain a strong - side shock [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2,287 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (1 - 5) is - 7 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (1 - 3) is 14 yuan/ton [2]. - Futures positions: 938,213 lots for yellow corn and 229,123 lots for corn starch, with an increase of 3,174 lots for corn starch [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: - 184,321 lots for corn starch and - 40,210 lots for corn, a decrease of 7,515 lots for corn [2]. - Registered warehouse receipts: 58,664 lots for yellow corn and 0 lots for corn starch; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 351 yuan/ton [2]. - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 443.25 cents/bushel, down 6.5 cents; total CBOT corn positions are 1,644,250 lots, down 11,481 lots [2]. 3.2 Outer - Market - CBOT corn non - commercial net long positions are 37,621 lots, down 83,343 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Average corn spot price is 2,348.63 yuan/ton, up 8.73 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Changchun is 2,590 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn flat - hatch price in Jinzhou Port is 2,310 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Weifang is 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported corn CIF price is 2,095.98 yuan/ton, down 2.33 yuan/ton; corn starch factory price in Shijiazhuang is 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Corn starch main - contract basis is 52 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; corn main - contract basis is - 19.27 yuan/ton [2]. - The spread between Shandong starch and corn is 61.63 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 601 yuan/ton, up 147 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Predicted corn planting areas: 42.71 million hectares in the US, 13.1 million hectares in Brazil, 5.3 million hectares in Argentina, and 29.5 million hectares in China [2]. - Predicted corn yields: 364.4 million tons in the US, 22.6 million tons in Brazil, 7.5 million tons in Argentina, 44.3 million tons in China, and 32 million tons in Ukraine [2]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Corn inventories: 59.9 million tons in southern ports, down 2.9 million tons; 140 million tons in northern ports, up 6 million tons [2]. - Starch enterprise weekly inventory is 105.4 million tons, down 1.5 million tons [2]. - Corn imports are 6 million tons, down 2 million tons; corn starch exports are 12,780 tons, down 2,020 tons [2]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; sample feed corn inventory days are 27.83 days, up 1.6 days [2]. - Deep - processing corn consumption is 142.34 million tons, up 4.03 million tons; alcohol enterprise operating rate is 71.34%, up 1.89%; starch enterprise operating rate is 61.66%, up 0.28% [2]. 3.7 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 8.7%, up 0.08%; 60 - day historical volatility is 8.59%, up 0.11% [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for corn is 12.11%, up 1.94%; implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 12.11%, up 1.94% [2]. 3.8 Industry News - Brazilian 2025/26 corn production is expected to be 138 million tons, 2 million tons lower than the previous forecast [2]. - Analysts expect US 2025/26 corn export net sales from October 30, 2025, to be between 800,000 and 2.5 million tons [2].